Alternate 1
Alternate 2
Alternate 1 has minor wave 4 (red) forming a flat with the "c" leg of that flat in progress. The problem with that is minor wave 2 was also a flat, so the Elliott rule of alternation is violated.
Alternate 2 has minor wave 4 complete at last Wednesday's lows, with two wave 1 -2 sequences occuring since then. Minor wave 4 is a zig-zag in this count, which satisfies the rule of alternation. But minute wave 1 (green) is apparently 3 waves and should be 5, so that's a problem. It is possible that we're seeing the start of an ending diagonal for minor wave 5, which would allow for a 3 wave move as wave 1.
Thus I am not very confident in either alternate.
Meanwhile still holding long ES. It looked like there would be a sell signal on the ES hourly Trend/Osc today during the last hour of regular trading when the ES dropped below it's uptrend line - the Dynamic Oscillator had already broken below 80. But the rally into the close moved it back over that line so no sell signal was issued.
