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Monday, November 1, 2010

Monday 11/1/10 wrap up

On the ES, so much for the triangle discussed over the weekend.  I should have known, it was too obvious.  A couple of alternatives at this point:

Alternate 1
 
Alternate 2

Alternate 1 has minor wave 4 (red) forming a flat with the "c" leg of that flat in progress.  The problem with that is minor wave 2 was also a flat, so the Elliott rule of alternation is violated.
Alternate 2 has minor wave 4 complete at last Wednesday's lows, with two wave 1 -2 sequences occuring since then.  Minor wave 4 is a zig-zag in this count, which satisfies the rule of alternation.  But minute wave 1 (green) is apparently 3 waves and should be 5, so that's a problem.   It is possible that we're seeing the start of an ending diagonal for minor wave 5, which would allow for a 3 wave move as wave 1.
Thus I am not very confident in either alternate. 
Meanwhile still holding long ES.  It looked like there would be a sell signal on the ES hourly Trend/Osc today during the last hour of regular trading when the ES dropped below it's uptrend line - the Dynamic Oscillator had already broken below 80.   But the rally into the close moved it back over that line so no sell signal was issued.

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