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Saturday, June 27, 2015

Saturday, 6/27/15 update

EDIT - 6/28 - "NEVER MIND" - Roseanne Rosannadanna, SNL

"History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes" - Mark Twain

The pattern in the ES last week looks very much like a fractal of the bear move of May 21 to Jun 16:

If so, the outcome should be the same.

Saturday, June 20, 2015

Saturday, 6/20/15 update

The chop continues in the ES/SPX aaaargh!!  There is no clean Elliott pattern in the ES since the highs in May.  Five legs can be discerned in the move down from those highs into this weeks low, but they overlap, so the pattern is either a triple zig-zag or some type of leading diagonal:

They fit into the intermediate term counts as below:

Saturday, June 6, 2015

Saturday, 6/6/15 update

More selling this week.  But still choppy looking, and no break below the lower boundary of the trading range that's been in place in recent months.  It should be noted that the proposed ending diagonal since the start of the year can be counted as complete at the mid-May highs (not shown).  If this is the case, the pattern since those highs is an ugly looking set of nested 1st & 2nd waves that should soon accelerate into 3rd wave territory. However, the lack of a clearly impulsive structure since those highs argues for at least one more move to new all time highs before the ending diagonal is complete.  Until and unless the market morphs into some more serious downside action the benefit of the doubt has to be given to the bull case.