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Monday, July 25, 2011

Monday, 7/25/11 update

Preliminary down signals on the SPX and ES this morning when prices dropped below the uptrend line that defined the rally up from last Monday's lows.  This was accompanied by a drop below 80.0 on the Dynamic Oscillator in both indexes.  The Vindicator followed along at 2 PM (CST) when the Sell line crossed above the Buy line.  The long ES held since last Tuesday was sold at that point for a net gain of 21.50 points.



This is a market juncture with a high level of difficulty and thus risk.  There are at least a half dozen alternate possible Elliott counts, the two I present in the chart section of the blog are the more likely possibilities IMO, but even so their probabilities aren't the highest.  Adding to the risk is the news driven nature of the current situation.  The best Elliott analysis and technical analysis won't necessarily anticipate a sharp major jump in one direction or another that could occur as a result of a news item about the debt negotiations in Washington.
For current Elliott wave counts click the "HERE" button under the "Current Charts" banner at the top of this page.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Tuesday, 7/19/11 Update

Nice rally today in the SPX/ES.  Went long the ES this morning based on Buy signal generated by the Trendline Oscillator System.  The Dynamic Oscillator closed above 20 overnight and prices closed above the downtrend line a couple of hours later generating a preliminary "up" signal. Both kept climbing into the regular market open this AM where a long position was initiated.  I've been using Wilder's DMI as a proxy for the Vindicator in the Futures markets, it's serviceable but not the same - the DMI is based strictly on price statistics whereas the Vindicator uses advance/decline and volume statistics for it's inputs.  Anyway, the DI+ crossed above the DI-  on the ES at noon (CST) today confirming the uptrend.

ES - hourly

The story on the SPX is just a tad different.   Coming into today the Vindicator had been showing waning selling pressure (red line) and strengthening buying pressure (green line) over the last two trading days, particularly yesterday.  So a change of trend was in the wind.  This morning prices closed above the downtrend line and the Dynamic Oscillator closed above 20 at the end of the 1st 30 minutes of trading.  However the Vindicator Buy line (green) did not successfully cross above the Sell line (red) - rather it topped it just slightly towards the end of trading and then fell away into the close.  So caution is warranted here - this rally could fizzle.

SPX - 30 minute candles

Unfortunately I'm traveling the next few days on business and will have difficulty updating this site (I have a flight that lands in San Jose, CA at 8 PM tomorrow).  I'll do my best.

For current Elliott wave counts click the "HERE" button under the "Current Charts" banner at the top of this page.