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Monday, November 8, 2010

Monday 11/08/10 wrap up

Choppy sideways stuff on ES today, wholly in keeping with idea that we are in a Minute W4 with one more push left to complete Minor W5 of the rally dating back to late August.

If this count is correct, then Minor W3 (red) is shorter than Minor W1, so the current Minor W5 cannot exceed the length of Minor W3.  Minor W3 traveled 69.00 points, so measuring from the "e" wave low of Minor W4 at 1173.75 the cap on this rally should be 1242.75 (1173.75 + 69.00 = 1242.75).  If that level is exceeded without a decent correction then the rally is extending.  An extension in the rally could travel a considerable distance.

Gold keeps on trucking, if the idea of a flat correction in progress is correct it needs to roll over pretty quick.  Realistically it doesn't look like that is going to happen.  A reasonable limit for travel on a "b" wave in an irregular flat is 1.382 times the travel of the "a" wave, so that puts a limit around 1416 past which I'd have to say the flat correction alternative is off the table.

EUR looks like it's completed or is close to completing the 1st wave down of a correction.  We thus should see a retrace of the downstroke of the last few days.  If that's true, it means potential weakness in the US$ which supports the case for another push up in the ES.  It also probably would spur the gold rally past the 1416 level mentioned above.
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