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Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Tuesday 11/09/10 wrap up

Minute W5 (green) and thus Minor W5 (red) of the rally from late August was quite possibly complete at today's highs.  The strength of the selloff today certainly would seem to corroborate that.
Preferred Count

However, it is possible that the selling today is a "c" wave to Minute W4, with Minor W5 in the wings.  If so, the market needs to rally almost immediately.  Minute W1 topped @ ES 1196.50, so an ES print below that level invalidates this possibility.  The ES bottomed today at 1206.25, so 1196.50 is not very far away.  This alternate has a much lower probability IMO.
Alternate count

The daily Trend/Osc has the ES still in UP mode, if that swings to DOWN mode the top is confirmed.  The question in that eventuality is what severity the correction will have.

Sell signal on the hourly AUD Trend/Osc today.  Prices broke below the uptrend line at 11 AM CST and then below 80 on the Dynamic Oscillator at 12 PM.

Daily AUD Trend/Osc is in solid UP mode, so at this point I'm inclined to ignore the hourly sell (except for selling long AUD which was done at mid-day today) and plan to go long on an hourly Trend/Osc buy signal.

The EUR is turning into a train wreck (BTW this is one reason to believe the top is in on ES).  Overnight a clear 5 waves down from last Thursday's top could be counted.  This morning it looked like a nice countertrend rally was beginning, but it didn't get very far.  This pattern looks exttremely weak, hard to say when it might take a breather.

The EUR daily Trend/Osc is once again flirting with a sell as it has so many times in recent weeks.  It's a repeat of those prior patterns with prices below the uptrend line dating back to the August lows but the Dyn Osc tracking above the 80 level.  Looks very much like a topping process.

Don't have time to work up Gold charts, but the strength of the selling today leaves the flat correction alternative mentioned yesterday in play, even though prices ran up past the 1416 level.  Whatever the eventual EW pattern, today's strong drop would seem to indicate that a top of some sort is in at today's highs.
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