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Saturday, November 18, 2017

Saturday, 11/18/17 update

Recent market activity has been a little difficult to read from an EW standpoint.  The short term chart on last weekend's update had the low of Thurs, 11/9 labeled as the "c" wave in an irregular flat.  That was blown up this week when further selling continued that move down and formed a 3 wave move from the top on 11/8 - so we have an a-b-c down rather than a 5 wave impulse as required in a "c" wave.  This forced a revision of the short term count.  The current view is that Minute W3 ended with an ending diagonal that topped at the ATH of 11/8 and the subsequent 3 wave move into last Wednesday's low is the "a" wave of either a flat, triangle or multiple zig-zag Minute W4.

Short term chart:


From a wider perspective it's still the case that the current count (IF correct) requires a couple of additional W4 - W5 sequences before a significant top is in place.

Intermediate term chart:


NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts   

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Saturday, 11/11/17 update

Just a tad wobbly last week, but there needs to be a lot more bear action of that sort before considering a declaration of demise for the bull.  Current EW count has 4th & 5th wave unwinds still in progress, so a top is not yet in place IF the count is correct.

Short term chart:


Intermediate term chart:


NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts   

Saturday, November 4, 2017

Saturday, 11/4/17 update

4th & 5th wave unwinds have been in progress, market is moving towards a top but not there yet.  The bull is still stampeding, but it does show signs of getting tired.

Short term chart:


Intermediate term chart:


In the last couple of weeks the ES/SPX has rallied while the broader market has been essentially flat.  That's a sign of an approaching top - fewer and fewer stocks are seen as having upside potential.  The divergence is obvious in the below comparison of the SPX to the NYA.  The same divergence is apparent in the RUT.

NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts