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Saturday, March 25, 2017

Saturday, 3/25/17 update

The selling since the 1st of the month needs to find a bottom soon or we could be looking at a higher degree correction than the current EW count indicates.  The current preferred IT view has the ES/SPX in Minute W4 of a Minor W3 rally that commenced on election day in November:

Alternate #1 - still working out Minor W3

However, it is possible to count the move off the Nov 9 low as complete at the Mar 1 high - and that would mean that the Mar 1 high is the Minor W3 top and we are in Minor W4 of an impulse that started at the lows of last June: 

Alternate #2 - Minor W3 top is in, working out Minor W4

For perspective it should be noted that Minor W2 of the move lasted 3 months and spanned a drop in the ES of roughly 160 points.

 NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts

Saturday, March 18, 2017

Saturday, 3/18/17 update

The two short term alternate counts discussed in last weekend's update are still in play.  Short term charts for those:

Preferred count

A triangle is drawn in on the preferred count, but we could see other patterns form.

 Alternate count

 NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Saturday, 3/11/17 update

Looks like a ST low was established on Thursday in the ES/SPX.  The preferred count has the ES in Minute W4 of the election day rally.  Minute W2 in the preferred count is a simple zig-zag, so the EW rule of alternation would indicate a flat, triangle or complex zig-zag for Minute W4.  The drop from the ES 2401.00 high is a simple zig-zag, so the expectation is that the Thursday low marks wave "a" of Minute W4 with more corrective activity yet to occur before Minute W4 wraps up. 

Preferred count

If Thursday's low eventually proves to mark the entirety of Minute W4 then an alternate IT count for the rally off the election day low comes into play.  The alternate count does not imply any really significant variation from the preferred count - it primarily changes the target for the potential top of Minor W3.

Alternate Count

Saturday, March 4, 2017

Saturday, 3/4/17 update

Looks like we may have hit a wall at ES 2401 on Wednesday, but it should only be temporary.  If the current count is correct we're in Minute W4 of the election day rally that commenced Nov 9, and that is Minute W4 of Minor W3 of Intermediate W3 - so the bull should be alive and well for some time yet.  4th waves can be complex and tricky, so it's difficult to project how the correction might unfold.  Potential chart support for a Minute W4 low is in the ES 2370 area and below that in the ES 2350 area:

Intermediate term view:

Wednesday, March 1, 2017

Wednesday, 3/1/17 update

At the end of last Saturday's update it was noted that the IT count of the move up off the early November lows had the 1st wave longer than the 3rd with a 5th wave in progress.  In Elliott Wave the 3rd wave cannot be the shortest, so it was noted that if the rally kept steaming ahead and breached ES 2381.00 then the count was invalidated as that would make the assumed 3rd wave the shortest in the sequence.
Obviously we blew through that 2381 mark with today's action, so the IT count had to be revisited.  Best solution for the pattern at this point is that the rally from early November into the ST top of Jan 26th constitutes an extended Minute W1 of the move with Minute W3 currently in progress and Minute W4 & W5 yet to come.  So the bull has a distance to go yet in this analysis.