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Saturday, November 20, 2010

Weekend Update 11/20/10

2nd Addendum 11/21 (5:10PM)
DX has gapped down on it's open, thus EUR, AUD, Gold, Silver gapped up.  Sell signal from Friday on EUR is now canceled, chances are that will also happen with the others.  I would guess my short gold position will be toast before the night is over.

Addendum 11/21
There was a whipsaw in the hourly Trend/Osc for the ES on Friday with a sell signal in the morning subsequently canceled at the close with the high print @ ES 1200.00.  Thus ES is still in UP mode from Tuesday Nov 16, but that is rather tenuous IMO.

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Short term bear flags all over the place on Friday, although ES and Silver may be overriding theirs.
EUR
AUD
GOLD
SILVER
ES

I don't normally like to open trades on a Friday afternoon, but the first three looked pretty juicy.  So I picked gold and opened a short position there.  Might open shorts in some of the others on Sunday night after the open.  I will especially be watching the EUR and AUD. 

The US $ (DX) is key to the currencies and metals, especially the EUR and Gold.  The DX looks like it started an uptrend from the low of Nov 3rd.  Last week the daily DX closed right at the downtrend line established from it's June highs on Tuesday and fell away from there.  So that uptrend is not yet confirmed.

However, an hourly Trend/Osc buy signal occurred on Friday for the DX.  That signal was matched by sell signals for the EUR and Gold (btw also AUD and Silver, but they are a little more problematical) which is to be expected.  If the DX falls below Friday's low of 78.26 in the very near future that hourly buy will be canceled.  If not, we very likely will see a strong DX rally resulting in a daily close above the daily downtrend line in the above chart.  That would confirm an intermediate term uptrend for the DX.  And of course it would be bearish for EUR and Gold, as well as AUD, Silver and ES.  So it bears watching (no pun intended).

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