1:30 PM CST
Updated Elliott count for gold:
The triangle formation projected in this count is only a guess. Minute Wave 2 (green) was a double zig-zag so by the Elliott rule of alternation Minute Wave 4 should be either a flat or triangle.
Long term Elliott count on gold:
When looking at the long term gold chart keep in mind that gold behaves like a commodity. Commodity Elliott patterns vary from equities in their 5th waves which tend to be the most powerful, as opposed to equities where the 3rd wave is generally the strongest. As a result, it's important to note that gold is only partway into a Primary Wave 5 (red roman numeral IV in 2008 marks primary wave low) and thus appears to have quite a long way to go before a long term top.
11:15 AM CST
Sell signal on hourly Trend/Osc for gold:
Gold also is very close to a sell on the daily Trend/Osc. The Dynamic Oscillator is already tracking below 80, if prices close below the uptrend line today it is a sell signal. The daily uptrend line is at 1335.70.
Hi Al - I'm still real long now. The $NASI is the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index which is a MACD variant. The NASI Top seems to be Simple (one hump) or Complex (two humps: comprised of complex top 1 (CT 1), the middle bottom (MB) and CT 2). It looks like ATR (14) can be used to predict whether the Top will be simple or complex: http://instigator928.blogspot.com/2010/11/atr14-to-identify-nasi-top-type.html
ReplyDeleteRight now we just formed a MB and are running up to a CT 2. My biggest holding is TNA, the 3x Russell 2000 ETF. I've been spending my time characterizing the Complex Tops, including duration of each leg, and the daily & weekly chart patterns for the $VIX & TNA. The patterns analyzed include Elder impulses, Candlesticks as they relate to volume, Heikin-Ashi, gross wave counts, Momentum indicators (Awesome Oscillator, Klinger Histogram and True Strength Indicator) along with a Trending indicator (RSQR). This is all detailed on my blog. I enjoy your blog, because we often use different mechanisms to come up with the same predictions. I notice that you're located west of Madison. Winters in WI have a place in my heart, since I usually come out to either Madison, Oshkosh or Lake Geneva every year to race in the Skeeter class. But today I'm going somewhere that is warm...