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Saturday, February 25, 2017

Saturday, 2/25/17 update

After an initial surge last Monday the ES/SPX finally embarked on some corrective activity for the remainder of the week.  If the current ST count is correct then we're in Micro W4 of Minute W5.  Micro W2 was a simple zig-zag, so Micro W4 should be a flat, diagonal or some type of complex structure.  Micro W5 will follow into a more significant top.


Longer term perspective:


One thing of note on the above Intermediate Term count is that Minute W3 (green) of Minor W3 (red) is shorter than Minute W1.  EW rules dictate that the 3rd wave of an impulse cannot be the shortest wave, so if the move currently counted as Minute W5 exceeds the length of Minute W3 then the count is invalidated.  That invalidation level lies at ES 2381.00.  In that event then the move up from the Minute W2 low into the top currently labeled Minute W3 will be relabeled as Micro W1 of Minute W3 and the potential top for the whole sequence from the early November low moves up significantly.


NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecast

Saturday, February 18, 2017

Saturday, 2/18/17 update

Last weekend's update marked the top of peak acceleration for Minute W5 at the high that Friday.  It wasn't.  Monday thru Wednesday last week saw further extension of the run with a pause in the action on Thursday & Friday.  Updated short term count looks like this:


If this count is correct then we have a 4th & 5th wave sequence yet to occur to complete Minute W5 and thus Minor W3.

Looking at the longer term count, the Major W5 bull market that commenced at the Feb, 2016 lows still has quite a distance yet to travel.  If the long term count is correct we're in Minor W3 of Intermediate W3 of that move - i.e. in the middle of the run from an EW standpoint.  Go long or be wrong!



NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecast

Saturday, February 11, 2017

Saturday, 2/11/17 update

Of the two possibilities for the ES proposed in last weekend's update the 2nd alternate appears to be the one in play, and that is that Minute W5 is extending.  The current count has the ES at the top of the peak acceleration in Minute W5.  If accurate, there needs to be a series of 4th & 5th wave sequences before Minute W5 concludes:


Longer term view:

NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecast

Sunday, February 5, 2017

Sunday, 2/5/17 update

There are always two questions to be answered in market analysis: what's possible and what's probable.   Currently there are two possibilities if our EW count for the ES/SPX is correct, and those are that Minute W5 of Minor W3 topped at the Jan 26 ATH or that the Jan 26 high only marked the top of Micro W1 of Minute W5.  As far as what's probable there is not a definitive favorite.   In EW waves 1 & 5 generally are similar in time duration and wave 5 relates to wave 1 by a fibonacci multiple.  Minute W1 was the initial thrust out of the election day low and lasted 2 days, the rally that led to the Jan 26 high was about 4 days, so they are similarly brief in duration.  However, the possible Minute W5 was not a fibonacci multiple of Minute W1 - in fact it didn't even achieve a .382 multiple of Minute W1 (Trump enthusiasm waning?).  Because of the quick duration of the Jan 23 - 26 rally the possibility that Minute W5 topped on Jan 26 has an edge, but only a very slight one.  


Long term count:


Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Tuesday, 1/24/17 update

As it turns out, the pattern in the ES since the Jan 6 top wasn't a pure EW triangle as suggested in last Saturday's update.  But there's no doubt it was corrective, and there's also no doubt that it's now over.  How exactly to label the correction is irrelevant at this point, so it's going to keep the triangle labeling and be counted as Minute W4.  Thus Minute W5 is in progress.  Preliminary target for Minute W5 is ES 2326, but that number is not chiseled in a stone tablet that came down from the mountain.

Hourly chart

Daily chart

I will be traveling Thursday PM through Sunday so probably no weekend updates.

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Saturday, 1/21/17 update

Looks like the ES is forming a triangle for Minute W4, and that triangle is very close to being completed.  If so, Minute W5 should rally prices to new ATH's:


Hourly chart:  
 

Daily chart:  
 

Thursday, January 12, 2017

Thursday, 1/12/17 update

Tough market to read this week.  Very much a correction in progress, very unlikely that this is the start of a sustained bearish move.  Current count has the ES in a Minute W4, the short term chart below suggests a flat type structure but it could take another form.  If this count is accurate we should resume the march upwards in a few days or so (if we haven't already).

Hourly chart:


Daily chart: