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Saturday, December 10, 2016

Saturday, 12/10/16 update

Moon shot in progress.  Who knows, the way this is unfolding we could well be aiming for Mars!

Long term view has the ES/SPX in Major Wave 5 of the bull market that commenced in the spring of 2009.  Current count has it in Minute W3 of Minor W3 of Intermediate W3 of that 5th wave - i.e. the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd.  The price action since the election day low certainly has been confirming this view.



A very preliminary target for Major W5 is ES 2569, but the emphasis is on preliminary.  It's far too early to know how probable that target may be. 

Saturday, December 3, 2016

Saturday, 12/3/16 update

Current preferred count for the ES:




Sunday, November 20, 2016

Sunday, 11/20/16 update

The election rally has obviously lost steam over the last week.  The pattern over the last 6 trading days looks to be an ending diagonal.  With that in mind the current short term count in the ES has 5 waves up complete since the overnight low of election day:


If this count is accurate then we should see some corrective selling over the coming holiday week.  The longer term question is whether that correction is a 2nd wave as in the 1st alternate below or a "B" wave as in the 2nd alternate:

Alternate #1 - Intermediate W3 of Major W5 of Primary W3 in progress


Alternate #2 - Major Wave B of Primary W IV in progress


Saturday, November 5, 2016

Saturday, 11/5/16 update

The current preferred count is that the ES/SPX is in the later stages of a double zig-zag correction that commenced at the August highs.  Short term proposed count looks like this:


From a longer term perspective it appears that the ES/SPX is either in Primary W IV of the bull market that dates back to Mar '09 (1st chart below) or is still building Major W5 of Primary W III of that structure (2nd chart):

Alternate #1: Primary W IV in progress





Alternate #2: Major W5 of Primary W III in progress

Sunday, October 30, 2016

Sunday, 10/30/16 update

Let's see - 3 way move off Wednesday's low into a high Thursday morning, followed by a three wave move down into a low early Friday morning, followed by a 5 wave impulse into a high late Friday morning, but that high is significantly lower than Thursday morning's high.  Looks like a running flat to me. Very bearish.


Saturday, October 22, 2016

Saturday, 10/22/16 update

The sideways chop in the ES/SPX that started last summer continues to manifest it's annoying self.  Hard to come up with a high confidence EW count, here's a best guess:


Saturday, October 15, 2016

Saturday, 10/15/16 update

The triangle "X" wave posited in last weekend's update played out pretty much as anticipated.  That wave terminated on Monday and a 5 wave impulse down ensued leading to a low on Thursday morning.  The bounce since that low put in three legs into a high Friday morning, adequate for a correction, so it may be that another leg down has commenced.  If all this is correct, then since the Monday triangle terminus we've seen either waves A & B of zig-zag "Y" or we've seen waves 1 & 2 of wave A of that zig-zag:

 
Backing out to a longer view the two most likely possibilities are that Primary W III of the bull market since the '09 lows topped this summer with Primary W IV in progress (1st chart below) or the ES/SPX is working out Major W5 of Primary W III (2nd chart below).  Couple of things to note: on the 1st alternate Primary W II was a simple zig-zag, so Primary W IV needs to be a flat, triangle or some type of complex corrective sequence as per the EW rule of alternation. On the 2nd alternate the count is invalidated if the market continues selling off and drops below the assumed start of Minor W1 at ES 1981.50.