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Saturday, April 22, 2017

Saturday, 4/22/17 update

The sideways grind continues in the ES/SPX but indications are that we're close to the end.  The pattern since the Mar 1st high looks very wedgy, the ST chart below reflects that in the form of a triangle.  There are other possibilities of course, but this seems the most likely IMO.  But I've been wrong before.  Sometimes this type of pattern resolves with a final steep plunge before wrapping up, so caution is warranted.


Intermediate term chart:


Saturday, April 15, 2017

Saturday, 4/15/17 update

It's now fairly certain that Minor W3 topped on Mar 1st.  With that in mind here's a current IT chart:


The ES is in a 4th wave. 4th waves are notoriously complex and frustrating.  A couple of possibilities for the structure of the move are outlined in the below ST chart, but a lot of other things could happen as well.



Sunday, April 9, 2017

Sunday, 4/9/17 update

Last week's action in the ES muddied up the short term picture somewhat.  Of the two alternates being followed in recent weeks the idea that Minor W3 off the election day low is still in progress has been the preferred count.  The alternate is that Minor W3 was complete at the Mar 1st high.  That preferred count remains the most likely, but it's probability vs. the alternate has now dropped very close to 50/50, mainly due to the amount of time the market is spending churning sideways.  We really need to see a sustained rally to new all time highs relatively soon to keep the preferred count healthy.  As far as invalidation levels, the preferred count is eliminated if the selling accelerates and the ES drops below The Minute W1 high of 2277.00 registered on Jan 6.  Unfortunately that's a distance away so it may be of no immediate help in deciphering where we're at.  This is especially so if the ES continues to churn sideways, which it could well do.  The alternate is eliminated if we rally up from here to new all time highs as mentioned earlier.

Preferred count

Alternate count

One final note, and sorry if this is getting confusing:  a case could also be made for the possibility of Intermediate W3 being complete at the Mar 1st high.  The significance of this is that a very major market top is much closer than would be anticipated in the above alternates. 


NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts

Saturday, April 1, 2017

Saturday, 4/1/17 update

The preferred count for the ES/SPX has the market in a Minor W3 rally that commenced on the election day lows of last November.  As of last weekend's update Minute W1, W2 and W3 were complete with Minute W4 in progress.  Minute W4 appears to have bottomed at last Monday's low, so the presumption is that Minute W5 is underway.  ST count under that scenario looks like this:

 
 Longer term perspective:


 
As indicated on the chart a 1st target level for Minute W5 and thus Minor W3 is ES 2412.00.  It needs to be noted that Elliott Wave rules are that the 3rd wave in an impulse cannot be the shortest wave.  In the current count for Minor W3 off the election day low Minute W3 is shorter than Minute W1.  Thus Minute W5 cannot be longer than Minute W3 for the count to be valid.  The invalidation price level that is indicated is ES 2470.25 if in fact Minute W4 was complete at last Monday's low.  If that level is exceeded during the anticipated rally then the most likely inference is that Minor W3 is extending (subdividing) in some fashion.

Finally it also needs to be noted that the alternate count presented last weekend is still in play.

 NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts

Saturday, March 25, 2017

Saturday, 3/25/17 update

The selling since the 1st of the month needs to find a bottom soon or we could be looking at a higher degree correction than the current EW count indicates.  The current preferred IT view has the ES/SPX in Minute W4 of a Minor W3 rally that commenced on election day in November:

Alternate #1 - still working out Minor W3

However, it is possible to count the move off the Nov 9 low as complete at the Mar 1 high - and that would mean that the Mar 1 high is the Minor W3 top and we are in Minor W4 of an impulse that started at the lows of last June: 

Alternate #2 - Minor W3 top is in, working out Minor W4


For perspective it should be noted that Minor W2 of the move lasted 3 months and spanned a drop in the ES of roughly 160 points.

 NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts

Saturday, March 18, 2017

Saturday, 3/18/17 update

The two short term alternate counts discussed in last weekend's update are still in play.  Short term charts for those:

Preferred count

A triangle is drawn in on the preferred count, but we could see other patterns form.

 Alternate count

 NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Saturday, 3/11/17 update

Looks like a ST low was established on Thursday in the ES/SPX.  The preferred count has the ES in Minute W4 of the election day rally.  Minute W2 in the preferred count is a simple zig-zag, so the EW rule of alternation would indicate a flat, triangle or complex zig-zag for Minute W4.  The drop from the ES 2401.00 high is a simple zig-zag, so the expectation is that the Thursday low marks wave "a" of Minute W4 with more corrective activity yet to occur before Minute W4 wraps up. 

Preferred count

If Thursday's low eventually proves to mark the entirety of Minute W4 then an alternate IT count for the rally off the election day low comes into play.  The alternate count does not imply any really significant variation from the preferred count - it primarily changes the target for the potential top of Minor W3.

Alternate Count