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Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Tuesday, 8/23/16 update

Looks like a flat correction in progress over the last week and a half.


Sunday, August 14, 2016

Sunday, 8/14/16 update

From a long term perspective the equities markets continue to show divergences of the blue chips as measured by the S&P 500 as compared to the broader market, represented in the below charts by the NYSE (NYA) and the Russell 2000 (RUT):


My current long term count has the ES/SPX working out at least one 4th/5th wave sequence of the bull market that commenced at the MAR 2009 lows.  A narrowing of relative strength in equities to favor blue chips vs other issues is a characteristic of 5th waves, so the long term perspective is confirmed by the above charts.  The obvious message is that a bear market of some significance is getting closer.

On the short term, crude oil looks to have established a low at almost exactly a 50% retrace of the early February to early June rally:


This could provide some lift to the ES/SPX.

Current EW counts for the ES can be found here.

Sunday, August 7, 2016

Sunday, 8/7/16 update

ES/SPX finally woke up from it's mid-summer slumber this last week.  The EW count has not changed significantly after the last two weeks of sideways churn.  Alternate counts are essentially the same as those proposed two weeks ago:


OR 


Saturday, July 23, 2016

Saturday, 7/23/16 update

The last seven trading days have been entirely forgettable: a slow sideways grind.  These types of periods are difficult to chart from an EW perspective.  Here's what it looks like in the ES futures, but this may need to be revised as the market continues to develop:


As can be seen, if this count is correct then the rally that commenced at the end of June should resume after a relatively minor correction over the next day or two.  Again, that's IF this count is correct.

Backing out to a wider view, we have two impulsive sequences up from the Jun 27 low:


The preferred count is that those impulses have formed waves 1 through 3 of the move into the recent high with wave 4 in progress and wave 5 to follow with targets at ES 2202 and 2254.

An alternate view would be that the pattern up from the Jun 27th low is a series of nested waves 1 & 2:

Saturday, July 16, 2016

Saturday, 7/16/16 update

Short term ES count:






Intermediate term:


Long term:


Saturday, July 9, 2016

Saturday, 7/9/16 update

More bull market this week from the land of forever up.  Bears (of which I am one) need to get off the tracks for the time being lest they get run over (which I have done).  The ATH in the ES was at 2134 last year, we came within 9 points of that at Friday's high.  Doesn't look like that level will provide any real resistance at this point. 

Hourly chart

Daily chart 

I've been wondering if a new amendment to our Constitution was passed that mandated BTFD.

Sunday, July 3, 2016

Sunday, 7/3/16 update

The long term count for the ES has been revised:


Notes on the revision can be found here.

Current short term count: