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Sunday, January 21, 2018

Sunday, 1/21/18 update

The rip your face off rally in the ES/SPX the first two weeks of the month has dictated a revision in the EW count from last August's lows:




NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts   

Monday, January 15, 2018

Monday, 1/15/18 update

ES/SPX has certainly been parabolic as can be seen on the weekly chart:


It may make more sense to look at the long term picture using a chart on a log scale:


NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts   

Saturday, January 6, 2018

Saturday, 1/6/18 update

The ES/SPX is on a trajectory of which any rocket scientist would be proud. And there's no sign of running out of fuel yet.  Where the top might be is anyone's guess.



ALTERNATE

 NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts   

Monday, January 1, 2018

Happy New Year!! update 1/1/18

The pattern in the ES over the holiday weeks can be counted in two different ways.  1st possibility is that of a 4th wave triangle leading into a quick thrust of a 5th wave on Friday followed by the 1st leg of a correction:


This would portend more corrective activity over the coming days.

The 2nd possibility is that of a flat style correction with Friday's selling being the "c" - and thus last - wave of that pattern:


This would mean a quick conclusion to the selling (if it's not already done) and another ramp up almost immediately.  This alternate is the higher probability IMO.

From a longer term perspective the preferred count is showing a major top in the near future:


This count has the ES in Intermediate W5 (purple) of Major W5 (blue) of Primary W III, with Primary W III being a bull market that commenced in 2010 and Major W5 being the bull market of the last 2 years - if true, a significant juncture.

However, the parabolic rise of recent months is more typical of a 3rd wave rather than a 5th wave as labeled above.  So the thought is that the pattern from early 2016 thru mid 2017 is a series of nested 1st & 2nd waves with the run up from August thru now being the 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd wave - i.e. the point of maximum acceleration:


This count has to be given serious consideration - if for no other reason than that there have been no serious signs of topping action as of yet.

 NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts   

Monday, December 25, 2017

Merry Christmas!! update 12/25/17

Best guess count:


And the alternate:


NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts   

Saturday, December 16, 2017

Saturday, 12/16/17 update

And the beat goes on.
When looking at the below charts understand that we are still in a bull market which shows no notable signs of slowing down as of yet.  Although the current count has the ES approaching a significant top it's not there yet, and any of these bull waves could extend to much higher levels than indicated.  So the levels indicated in the charts are tentative, or better yet, tenuous.

There is the possibility of resistance at ES 2697.50 for the rally that started Thursday evening.

Short term chart:

Intermediate term:

Long term:

NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts   

Sunday, December 3, 2017

Sunday, 12/3/17 update

Turns out that what was read as an ending diagonal 5th wave two weeks ago was in fact a leading diagonal 1st wave of that 5th wave.  And that 5th wave is now extending.


There is a potential resistance level in the ES 2665.00 - 2667.50 area, but the ES is right up against it with a lot of fuel in the tank so that level will probably be topped.  Next potential resistance is at ES 2733.00.  There are a bunch of 4th-5th wave unwinds necessary to resolve the count.  So there appears to be a distance yet to travel before a top can be considered.  Blow off top anyone?