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Saturday, March 18, 2017

Saturday, 3/18/17 update

The two short term alternate counts discussed in last weekend's update are still in play.  Short term charts for those:

Preferred count

A triangle is drawn in on the preferred count, but we could see other patterns form.

 Alternate count

 NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Saturday, 3/11/17 update

Looks like a ST low was established on Thursday in the ES/SPX.  The preferred count has the ES in Minute W4 of the election day rally.  Minute W2 in the preferred count is a simple zig-zag, so the EW rule of alternation would indicate a flat, triangle or complex zig-zag for Minute W4.  The drop from the ES 2401.00 high is a simple zig-zag, so the expectation is that the Thursday low marks wave "a" of Minute W4 with more corrective activity yet to occur before Minute W4 wraps up. 

Preferred count

If Thursday's low eventually proves to mark the entirety of Minute W4 then an alternate IT count for the rally off the election day low comes into play.  The alternate count does not imply any really significant variation from the preferred count - it primarily changes the target for the potential top of Minor W3.

Alternate Count

Saturday, March 4, 2017

Saturday, 3/4/17 update

Looks like we may have hit a wall at ES 2401 on Wednesday, but it should only be temporary.  If the current count is correct we're in Minute W4 of the election day rally that commenced Nov 9, and that is Minute W4 of Minor W3 of Intermediate W3 - so the bull should be alive and well for some time yet.  4th waves can be complex and tricky, so it's difficult to project how the correction might unfold.  Potential chart support for a Minute W4 low is in the ES 2370 area and below that in the ES 2350 area:

Intermediate term view:

Wednesday, March 1, 2017

Wednesday, 3/1/17 update

At the end of last Saturday's update it was noted that the IT count of the move up off the early November lows had the 1st wave longer than the 3rd with a 5th wave in progress.  In Elliott Wave the 3rd wave cannot be the shortest, so it was noted that if the rally kept steaming ahead and breached ES 2381.00 then the count was invalidated as that would make the assumed 3rd wave the shortest in the sequence.
Obviously we blew through that 2381 mark with today's action, so the IT count had to be revisited.  Best solution for the pattern at this point is that the rally from early November into the ST top of Jan 26th constitutes an extended Minute W1 of the move with Minute W3 currently in progress and Minute W4 & W5 yet to come.  So the bull has a distance to go yet in this analysis.

Saturday, February 25, 2017

Saturday, 2/25/17 update

After an initial surge last Monday the ES/SPX finally embarked on some corrective activity for the remainder of the week.  If the current ST count is correct then we're in Micro W4 of Minute W5.  Micro W2 was a simple zig-zag, so Micro W4 should be a flat, diagonal or some type of complex structure.  Micro W5 will follow into a more significant top.

Longer term perspective:

One thing of note on the above Intermediate Term count is that Minute W3 (green) of Minor W3 (red) is shorter than Minute W1.  EW rules dictate that the 3rd wave of an impulse cannot be the shortest wave, so if the move currently counted as Minute W5 exceeds the length of Minute W3 then the count is invalidated.  That invalidation level lies at ES 2381.00.  In that event then the move up from the Minute W2 low into the top currently labeled Minute W3 will be relabeled as Micro W1 of Minute W3 and the potential top for the whole sequence from the early November low moves up significantly.

NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecast

Saturday, February 18, 2017

Saturday, 2/18/17 update

Last weekend's update marked the top of peak acceleration for Minute W5 at the high that Friday.  It wasn't.  Monday thru Wednesday last week saw further extension of the run with a pause in the action on Thursday & Friday.  Updated short term count looks like this:

If this count is correct then we have a 4th & 5th wave sequence yet to occur to complete Minute W5 and thus Minor W3.

Looking at the longer term count, the Major W5 bull market that commenced at the Feb, 2016 lows still has quite a distance yet to travel.  If the long term count is correct we're in Minor W3 of Intermediate W3 of that move - i.e. in the middle of the run from an EW standpoint.  Go long or be wrong!

NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecast

Saturday, February 11, 2017

Saturday, 2/11/17 update

Of the two possibilities for the ES proposed in last weekend's update the 2nd alternate appears to be the one in play, and that is that Minute W5 is extending.  The current count has the ES at the top of the peak acceleration in Minute W5.  If accurate, there needs to be a series of 4th & 5th wave sequences before Minute W5 concludes:

Longer term view:

NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecast