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Thursday, January 12, 2017

Thursday, 1/12/17 update

Tough market to read this week.  Very much a correction in progress, very unlikely that this is the start of a sustained bearish move.  Current count has the ES in a Minute W4, the short term chart below suggests a flat type structure but it could take another form.  If this count is accurate we should resume the march upwards in a few days or so (if we haven't already).

Hourly chart:

Daily chart:

Saturday, January 7, 2017

Saturday, 1/7/17 update

Ever stop to think that most of our "money" these days consists of electronic 1's and 0's in a computer somewhere?  That thought does not inspire confidence.  What if the power goes out?  I suspect Tesla would be amused.

The ES/SPX continues it's ascent of the stairway to heaven.  The preferred count remains the most probable. 

Short term chart:

Intermediate term chart:

NOTE: dotted lines show structure necessary to complete the EW pattern and are NOT intended as price/time forecasts

Monday, January 2, 2017

Monday, 1/2/17 update

The preferred count has had the ES in the 4th wave of Minute W3 since mid-December.  To this point it has taken the form of a zig-zag which alternates nicely with the flat formed by wave 2 of the sequence.  EW rules have been met so all would seem in order, and it's likely that the coming week will bring a move up to new ATH's in a continuation of the rally that started on election day.

HOWEVER the correction has taken a bit longer in time and cut a bit deeper in price than seems reasonable.  If the ES keeps selling off from here then there are a couple of alternate counts that may be in play.  To understand those alternates let's look 1st at a longer view of the preferred count:

(NOTE: dotted lines show structure necessary to complete the formation and are NOT intended as a price/time forecast)

As can be seen, this count has the ES in a Major W5 that commenced at the lows of last February.  The count has the ES currently in Minute W3 of Minor W3 of Intermediate W3 of that Major W5.

The 1st alternate still has the ES in Major W5 but postulates that Major W5 is an ending diagonal with Intermediate W3 of that structure just complete and Inter W4 in progress.  Inter W5 will follow W4 and end in the top for both Major W5 and Primary W III:

The 2nd alternate has Major W5/Primary W III complete at the highs of last August with Intermediate W C of an irregular flat Primary W IV in progress:

If the ES keeps moving down from here the top of Micro W1 @ ES 2211.75 is the point at which the preferred count is invalidated - that would represent an overlap of W1 by W4 which is not allowed in EW rules:

Monday, December 26, 2016

Monday, 12/26/16 update

The activity since the mid-December highs looked to be a triangle type correction in progress.  That still may be the case, but it's also possible that the pattern will be a simple zig-zag.  Both possibilities are noted in the hourly chart below.  Either way we should see a rally to new ATH's once the corrective sequence is resolved.

Daily chart:

Saturday, December 17, 2016

Saturday, 12/17/16 update

Christmas rally in the ES continues in progress.  If this count is accurate the ramp up from the election day low has some distance yet to travel.

Short term count:

Longer term view:

Saturday, December 10, 2016

Saturday, 12/10/16 update

Moon shot in progress.  Who knows, the way this is unfolding we could well be aiming for Mars!

Long term view has the ES/SPX in Major Wave 5 of the bull market that commenced in the spring of 2009.  Current count has it in Minute W3 of Minor W3 of Intermediate W3 of that 5th wave - i.e. the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd.  The price action since the election day low certainly has been confirming this view.

A very preliminary target for Major W5 is ES 2569, but the emphasis is on preliminary.  It's far too early to know how probable that target may be. 

Saturday, December 3, 2016

Saturday, 12/3/16 update

Current preferred count for the ES: