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Saturday, October 30, 2010

Weekend Update 10/30/10

The ES continued tracing out what looks to be a triangle into the close Friday.  We should see one more dip early next week followed by a final thrust over ES 1200.  These would be the 4th and 5th waves to the rally that started in late August.  I believe a significant factor in the rally of the last couple months is anticipation of Republican victories next Tuesday, so this projection would fit the "buy the rumor sell the fact" scenario.  Only problem is a lot of folks are seeing the same thing, when too many people agree on a market possibility it tends to mitigate against that idea becoming reality.

I believe there are two possibilities into the end of the year.

Alternate 1

Alternate 2

Historically the end of year has an upward bias.  It also tends to have very low volatility, especially between Thanksgiving and Dec 31.  For these reasons Alternate 1 has to be given the edge, but I don't believe it's an overwhelming edge.  In other words, we could see some downside fireworks starting next week.

On the currencies, the EUR and AUD are currently in up mode on the Daily (and Hourly) Trendline/Oscillator System.  The EUR is the weaker of the two.  It broke below the Sep-Oct uptrend line a couple of weeks ago, but the Dynamic Oscillator has remained above 80 so it continues in bull mode.  It needs close monitoring - if there is no follow through on the run up that started last Wednesday then it's likely that the Dynamic Oscillator will finally break below 80 and thus generate a sell signal. 
The AUD is quite strong and has to be considered the lower risk choice for a long position. 

Like the currencies, the Metals are also both in up mode on the Daily and Hourly Trend/Osc System.  Gold flirted with a sell signal last week.  The Dyn Osc had moved below 80 on Fri Oct 22 and prices very nearly closed below the uptrend line on Wednesday, but Thursday saw the start of a nice rally and Gold appears to be out of danger for the time being.  Friday saw Gold close at HOD which is pretty bullish.
Silver saw a similar pattern over the last week but looks to be the stronger of the two.

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