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Sunday, November 20, 2016

Sunday, 11/20/16 update

The election rally has obviously lost steam over the last week.  The pattern over the last 6 trading days looks to be an ending diagonal.  With that in mind the current short term count in the ES has 5 waves up complete since the overnight low of election day:

If this count is accurate then we should see some corrective selling over the coming holiday week.  The longer term question is whether that correction is a 2nd wave as in the 1st alternate below or a "B" wave as in the 2nd alternate:

Alternate #1 - Intermediate W3 of Major W5 of Primary W3 in progress

Alternate #2 - Major Wave B of Primary W IV in progress

Saturday, November 5, 2016

Saturday, 11/5/16 update

The current preferred count is that the ES/SPX is in the later stages of a double zig-zag correction that commenced at the August highs.  Short term proposed count looks like this:

From a longer term perspective it appears that the ES/SPX is either in Primary W IV of the bull market that dates back to Mar '09 (1st chart below) or is still building Major W5 of Primary W III of that structure (2nd chart):

Alternate #1: Primary W IV in progress

Alternate #2: Major W5 of Primary W III in progress