The EUR, AUD, Gold, Silver and ES are all in down mode on the Trend/Osc system, which is to be expected with a bullish US$.
On the ES, we are in an Intermediate W4 and so far it's everything I've come to expect and dislike about corrective waves - choppy and hard to analyze. Intermediate W2 was a simple zig-zag, so this W4 should be either a flat, triangle or some type of complex formation. So far it looks like a triangle which quite possibly was done at today's lows. There are two alternates here for the triangle possibility.
ES Alternate 1
ES Alternate 2
There are other alternates here. We could see a flat type W4, in which case today's low would probably mark the end of the A leg of that structure, with a B wave up to early Nov highs followed by a C wave back down yet to come. The problem with this idea is the time it would take to develop. Intermediate W2 in August was 18 days, and this correction is at 17 days as of today, so you wouldn't expect it to run much longer.
There is another major problem here. If the triangle idea is correct, one would expect a fairly solid Intermediate W5 rally to have started today or not too long from now. However, if the US$ analysis presented above is in any way close to accurate, there should be an ongoing bearish drag on equities from that direction for a while yet. Which brings us to another option presented in weeks past. That option is encapsulated on the below chart:
I've been considering this alternate to be low probability because of the extremely choppy and overlapping nature of the move down from the top of Nov 9 to the low of Nov 16. That move would have to be labeled a W1 of the "C" leg in the above chart, and it was anything but the impulsive move to be expected in that case. But, there is the drag from the US$................... If the above alternate is correct, then we should know it by the end of the week because we should be close to tipping over into a 3rd wave. The ES 1173 area has been pretty solid support as of late, so that would be the level to watch. If the ES should break below that with any authority we could drop like a stone.
