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Saturday, August 19, 2017

Saturday, 8/19/17 update

If you're a bear (count me in that camp) your resolve was tested this last week with the strong ramp up that started the prior Friday and topped on Wednesday.  But Thursday brought confirmation of that bearish posture and the idea that the 4th wave (Intermediate W4) of a bull sequence that commenced in Feb, 2016 is underway.

Thus far we've had 3 waves since the Aug 8th top through Friday's low - a 5 wave impulse into the low of Aug 11 followed by a 3 wave correction into Wednesday morning's high and thence another 5 wave impulse into Friday's low.  This sequence is either an a-b-c zig-zag with Friday's low either the completion of the "c" leg or the bottom of the 1st wave of the "c" leg OR it's waves 1, 2 & 3 (in progress) of a much larger "a" wave off the Aug 8th top.  It's difficult to say which possibility is unfolding, but there are some considerations which point to the likelihood that there's more bear activity yet to occur.  First consideration is the depth and duration of Inter W2 (which occurred in June of last year) which lasted three weeks and dropped roughly 140 points in the ES.  So far we're less than 2 weeks and roughly 70 points from the Aug 8 top.  Second is the position of some longer term momentum indicators which have not yet reached the "oversold" territory normally seen at IT bottoms.  However, it's important to note that there are enough waves in place for Inter W4 to be complete at Friday's low, so from an EW standpoint it would be acceptable to have that as the termination of Inter W4.  The market was oversold on a short term basis at Friday's low so the resulting bounce was no surprise, and it's likely that the move up from that low has more to go.  If the rally gather's steam and tops the ES 2474 high of Wednesday in an impulsive fashion then the odds that Inter W4 is complete mount quite a bit.

If the sell off resumes there are two areas of potential chart support to watch as potential bottoms for Inter W4: ES 2400 and below that ES 2317-2322.

NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts   

Sunday, August 13, 2017

Sunday, 8/13/17 update

The Intermediate Term top anticipated in last weekend's update materialized on Tuesday with a spike high into ES 2488.50/SPX 2490.87 followed by an immediate and steep 30 point drop.  Current EW count has this high as the top of the 3rd wave (Intermediate W3 to be precise) of a bull impulse that started in Feb, 2016.  Inter W4 is thus underway.  Inter W2 was a simple flat, so by the EW rule of alternation this sell-off should take the form of a zig-zag, triangle or some sort of complex corrective sequence.  Preliminary target for the move is in the area of the prior Minor W4 lows around ES 2317 - 2322.

On the hourly chart of the ES, Elliott Wave purists will object to the labeling of the torturous 8 day sideways grind that ended last Tuesday as a triangle - but the cash market (SPX) shows the same pattern and is more proportionate.  Also, the culmination of the sequence with a short lived spike to new highs followed by an immediate collapse is right out of the Elliott textbook for this type of chart pattern.

So far since Tuesday's top we've had 3 waves down.  That could be it for the correction so far - i.e. the market may have concluded a zig-zag type "A" wave into Friday's low - or those waves are waves 1, 2 & 3 of a downwards impulse with the 4th wave in progress or completed.  If the move so far is an impulse then a possible target for a 5th wave low is at ES 2416.    

NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts

Saturday, August 5, 2017

Saturday, 8/5/17 update

Possible short term EW count for the ES is in the chart below.  We could be quite close to an IT top.