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Saturday, February 27, 2016

Saturday, 2/27/16 update

Current preferred short term count is below.  This count is a bit iffy because it's not at all clear that the lows of Feb 11 marked the end of the recent bear market.

Sunday, February 14, 2016

Saturday, February 6, 2016

Saturday, 2/6/16 update

Looking at the hourly chart of the ES a couple of things pop out. 
First, the pattern from the Jan 20 low into last Monday's high is quite a mess from an EW standpoint. 

There are a number of possible EW counts for the sequence, none of which is really clean.  It's certainly not clearly impulsive, although it's always possible that it will morph into some type of bull move.  But that would be surprising.  More likely it's a correction to an ongoing bear market.  That correction may have been done at last Monday's high, but it's possible that it isn't done.

The second thing that is noticeable is that the ES 1865 area has become an important support level.  Prices have been to that level four times in the last eight trading days, most recently towards the end of the day on Friday.  If the market can penetrate that level it will probably fall hard and fast for a bit.

The most bearish short term EW count has a correction ending at last Monday's ES 1940 high, but know that this is only one of a number of possibilities: