There are two near term Elliott possibilities here. The 1st one has Wave 2 ending at yesterday's highs and a Wave 3 underway. The internal structure of Wave 2 is a little awkward, but it works. That's the preferred count (since I'm short ES lol).
However, as of this writing the move down from yesterday's highs only has 3 legs, so we've not yet seen 5 waves down from yesterday, nor have we traded below Monday's lows. Thus from an Elliott standpoint it's not certain that Wave 2 was over at yesterday's highs. Rather, the selloff late yesterday and today could be the "B" wave of a flat type correction, with one more "C" wave rally in the offing before Wave 2 is finally done, as per following:
The Trend/Osc system generated another sell signal last night at 7 PM (CST) with ES at 1085.75. However, it looked like the market might rally overnight (Asian markets were strong) so a sell on stop at ES 1085.00 was placed. Some frustration here, because I set a target of 1093.00 to go short and could have set up an OCO (one cancels the other) to sell on stop at 1093.00 or 1085.00, but there is no way to automatically have a stop placed on an OCO order, i.e. if either end of the OCO was hit the position would be on without stop loss protection. I won't work without a net, so I decided to go with the sell on stop at ES 1085.00 with automatic stop loss placed on that position at 1105.00 if it was executed. As it turns out, the market rallied to exactly 1093.00 at 2 AM and then proceeded to immediately drop to 1085.00 at 2:36 AM at which point the sell on stop was executed. Frustrating. Anyway, still short from ES 1085.00 and holding.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
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