However, as of this writing the move down from yesterday's highs only has 3 legs, so we've not yet seen 5 waves down from yesterday, nor have we traded below Monday's lows. Thus from an Elliott standpoint it's not certain that Wave 2 was over at yesterday's highs. Rather, the selloff late yesterday and today could be the "B" wave of a flat type correction, with one more "C" wave rally in the offing before Wave 2 is finally done, as per following:
The Trend/Osc system generated another sell signal last night at 7 PM (CST) with ES at 1085.75. However, it looked like the market might rally overnight (Asian markets were strong) so a sell on stop at ES 1085.00 was placed. Some frustration here, because I set a target of 1093.00 to go short and could have set up an OCO (one cancels the other) to sell on stop at 1093.00 or 1085.00, but there is no way to automatically have a stop placed on an OCO order, i.e. if either end of the OCO was hit the position would be on without stop loss protection. I won't work without a net, so I decided to go with the sell on stop at ES 1085.00 with automatic stop loss placed on that position at 1105.00 if it was executed. As it turns out, the market rallied to exactly 1093.00 at 2 AM and then proceeded to immediately drop to 1085.00 at 2:36 AM at which point the sell on stop was executed. Frustrating. Anyway, still short from ES 1085.00 and holding.
Yeah, frustrating. Missed today's move and gave back everything since we agreed on wave 5, Monday. Guess that's how it goes some times. It wasn't until the market closed did I find out today was the weekly jobless claims, so I should've executed better with a hard stop since I was so concerned.
ReplyDeleteShorted on the run up before today's close, so I'm in the same boat as you. Hopefully the first scenario plays out like you said.
Alpha- hopefully this will work out well for both of us, I will say (as I have been saying) this market has looked awfully weak to me in the last couple of weeks. However, we are approaching oversold conditions so a retrace wouldn't be entirely a surprise, especially on "ramp up Monday".
ReplyDeleteGlad we stayed short. There was one short I had been holding for a month now so when it broke even today I closed that one. So still short 75%
ReplyDeleteLooks pretty good for the bear case. We now have 5 down from Wednesday's highs, so although we may correct here for a day or two it should be just a correction.
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