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Thursday, August 12, 2010

Thursday 8/12/10 wrap up

Preferred EW count looks like this:

The Intermediate Term bullish alternate cannot be completely ruled out as of yet, that idea would say that the diagonal 5 wave move up from the Jul 6 lows at ES 1002.75 is not an ending diagonal but rather a Wave 1, with a Wave 2 correction underway.

From the standpoint of Elliott wave rules this bullish alternate cannot be discarded unless and until the ES prints below the Jul 6 low at 1002.75.  But as a practical matter it's hard to give this bullish scenario any more than a low level of probability for the same reason that the rally leading into Monday's top was suspect:   low volume.  It's hard to see how this could be a correction in the early stages of a bull phase if there is no participation.  I think it's important to note that Wednesday's sell off was relatively low volume as well.  A true bear market is characterized by an evaporation of buyers.  

I know the Vindicator is my own creation, but I'm still undecided as to it's utility.  However, on review it's obvious that the Buy/Sell Vindicator was signaling the topping process that occurred in the last couple of weeks.  Note how the Buy line (green) diverged against prices coming into Monday's highs, clearly showing the waning of buying pressure: