Monday 8/23/10 wrap up

Current Elliott count ES hourly:

Starting to scare myself with the projections made last Thursday (red dashed lines).  Spooky.

Longer term view (ES daily):

There is an alternate bullish count which says that the highs of Aug 9 mark the end of a Wave 1 up and that the selling since then is a Wave 2 correction.  If that's the case we've already retraced 50 % of that Wave 1 at ES 1065.  The fibonnaci  61.8 level is around ES 1050 and the 78.6 is around ES 1029, so those are levels to watch.  Volume continues weak so the bullish argument continues to lack credibility IMO.

ALTERNATE BULLISH COUNT

The SPY Oct Calls that were bought Friday for a hedge against the short ES's were sold this morning. Still holding short ES from 1085.00.  The Stop & Reverse has now been moved to ES 1085.00 as well.  Will continue to hold short as long as prices continue to trade below the down trend line (thick blue line).

One final note: TOS had problems with it's data feed from the NYSE today.  The Vindicator is based on certain NYSE statistics and thus was not updating due to the TOS problem.  Hopefully that will be resolved by tomorrow.