The ES low tick today (1066.25) was 1 point off of an exact 50% retrace (1065.25) of the rally from Jul 6 to Aug 9. That tends to verify the thought that we've completed 5 waves down from the Aug 9 highs. Which puts us in Wave 2.
Duration of Wave 1 was roughly 6 days, so Wave 2 should be about the same or (probably) less. This dovetails nicely with the usual bullish action of OPEX week, i.e. once OPEX is over on Friday that lift will be gone and we could well see the resumption of the bear market.
Meanwhile, the Trend/Osc system could generate a buy overnight or tomorrow if prices break above the down trend line (thick blue line) and the Dyn Osc breaks above 20. If so it would be a risky long IMO.
The Vindicator lends credence to the near term bullish case with the Buy line above the Sell line and the V Stoch down in buy territory.
So long might be the right place for right now, but it would be a nervous long.
Great Post Al! The count you show for the 5th wave looks very plausible, one of the best I have seen. The Vindicator has been very useful lately, but you're right - buying the dip here seems a bit scary. I only have a 6% long position for a bounce... treading lightly here.
ReplyDeleteThanks for sharing :)