I like to think I'm pretty good when it comes to markets, but believe me I'm not THAT good. I do get lucky once in a while though. Anyway, we have a clear and completed 5 wave pattern down from Wednesday's highs, so it's pretty certain that Wave 2 (red) is over and we've just seen the end of subwave 1 (green). Soooooooo, after a little bit of corrective rally on "ramp up Monday" we should roll over into a wave 3 of 3 down.
Longer term perspective looks like this (ES daily chart):
If we are in fact seeing Major Wave C or 3 (blue) this leg will equal Major Wave A or 1 at ES 949.50, so that's a first target. FYI a 1.618 relationship comes in at 838.25.
Still holding short ES from 1085.00 per the Trend/Osc system. However, did hedge the short ES with some SPY OCT 108 calls around 11:30 AM today - hate holding short over the weekend into "ramp up Monday". The problem with using SPY is that it doesn't open again until Monday morning, so there's a possibility of a move against the position overnight Sunday in the ES, but it's a hedge so that doesn't mean potential losses but rather lost profit opportunity. At any rate, the odds of continued rally into Monday morning are fairly good IMO.
Al, Tony D. here. Glad to see we are on the same page here. I got out of 50% of my shorts Friday and took a small long TNA @ 35.15
ReplyDeletelooking for range 1082-87
50% retrace of move down from Wednesday highs is around 1080, 4th wave area is around 1075, so that's a likely target area. Glad to see you made those moves Friday.
ReplyDeleteHi Al, I thought you were going to send me an email.
ReplyDelete