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Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Tuesday 2/1/11 wrap up

Turns out the alternate ES count mentioned in the weekend post was the correct one.  The pattern from the high of Wed Jan 19 through Sunday night is most likely a Minor W4 (red) with Minor W5 of Intermediate W5 now in progress.
 

Minor W1 in early Dec ran 62.75 points and lasted 6 days.  If we add 62.75 to Sunday's low at 1262.25 then Minor W5 would equal Minor W1 at ES 1325.  Also, 6 days from Sunday night would be Monday Feb 7.

ES daily chart for perspective:

There is an alternate here that bears serious attention (and would upset all you perma bears).  That alternate is that the entirety of the rally from the late Aug low is an extended Intermediate W3 (purple). Obviously that means the ES has quite a bit of upside yet before any serious correction to the bull market that started last July.  There are reasons to give this idea credence.  Economic reports continue to show improvement.  Also, and probably more importantly, is mass psychology.  With the Nov elections there was a break in the total Democratic hold on national power, very similar to what happened in 1994.   Below is a chart of the SPX for the period from mid 1994 through mid 1996.  Just sayin.........

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