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Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Tuesday 2/15/11 wrap up

AUD/US$ (futures)  
Long term a bull market in the AUD dating back to last May appears to have topped at the highs of Feb 4.  If this is true the AUD should see a significant amount of selling in the next few months.

There are two legitimate possibilities in the EW count from the Feb 4 top, bearish and hyper-bearish.  In the bearish view the AUD is in the 5th and thus final leg of the first move down from the Feb 4th top.  In the hyper-bearish view, that move is extending and is currently in the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd wave of the series.  Obviously, in the hyper-bear scenario the selling should accelerate almost immediately and the AUD has quite a bit to go before any significant correction.  So we should know which is correct fairly quickly.

AUD - hourly - bearish

AUD - hourly - hyper-bearish        
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