Today the ES bounced right off the lower trendline of a channel dating back to the late August lows. The hourly pattern looks very impulsive, so chances are very good that it will break below that channel in the near future. Also, five waves can be counted as complete up from the lows of last July, so for now I'm labeling the bull sequence from that low as complete. If that is correct, we should eventually move down to the area of the Intermediate W4 (purple) low in the ES 1175 - 1200 area over the coming weeks. Interestingly, ES 1172 marks a 50% retrace of the entire move up from last July.
EUR
Prices in the EUR have been quite choppy since the low of Feb 14. At present it looks like an expanding diagonal. If so, a diagonal always precedes a change in trend, so the EUR should roll over when it's concluded. From a labeling standpoint the best interpretation at this point is that the diagonal is the C wave of an expanded flat Minute W2. Minute W1 is labeled as ending at the low of Feb 4. The problem with this is that Minute W1 only lasted 3 days, while Minute W2 has taken 13 days to this point - not very proportional. This count gets invalidated if the EUR prints above the high of 1.3856 that marked the start of Minute W1.
EUR - hourly
EUR - daily
There is an intriguing possibility here. From a longer term point of view it could be that the EUR is putting in a triangle type Major Wave "b" (blue) since the Major Wave "a" low of last June. In that possibility we are in the third (c) leg of that pattern, and would see several more months of essentially sideways action before rolling over into Major Wave "c" down.
EUR - daily - triangle Wave B alternate
