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Monday, January 31, 2011

Monday 1/31/11 wrap up

For the last 3 weeks the AUD has been very difficult (to put it politely).
The following hourly chart was presented on the weekend update as the most likely count for the AUD:


Nice and clean, fits the Elliott rules, etc.  Well, today the AUD rallied to a high print greater than that of Friday and threw that count into disarray.  The thought of a Minor Wave b (red) triangle is still in play, but it's hanging by a thread.  If the AUD continues today's rally up and past the high of Minute Wave "c" then this count is totally ruled out.  Minute Wave "c" topped at .9963.  Updated Minor W b triangle count looks like this:


There is an alternate count that has increased in probability with today's action.  It counts the entirety of the pattern from the late Dec high as a triangle correction.  Also, that correction can be counted as complete as of the low print on Sunday evening.

AUD hourly - alternate


AUD daily - alternate


As can be seen on the daily chart, the alternate has Intermediate W 4 (purple) done as of the Sunday evening low with Inter W 5 now in progress.  This would be the last wave up to the bull market that started at the lows of last May.  If the alternate is correct, some estimates can be made for Inter W 5.  Inter W 1 only lasted 4 days and traveled .0488, so the point where Inter W 5 = Inter W 1 is 1.0300 (exactly), and if the duration is the same that price should be reached by the end of the week.  
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