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Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Wednesday 2/16/11 wrap up

AUD/US$ (futures) 
The late afternoon rally today blew up my short term Elliott count for the AUD.  I still believe the underlying trend is down.  Right now it looks like we may be forming a flat correction from the low last Friday, with the "a" leg done at Monday's high and the "b" leg done at yesterday's low.  The "c" leg is currently in progress and should be a 5 wave impulse. Today's PM rally looks like the 3rd wave of that move. Minimum target is Monday's high at 1.0040, with a .618 retrace of the preceding sell-off at 1.0062 as a possible limit. 

AUD hourly 

Got stopped out of a short AUD position during today's rally, went long AUD late in the day.  I'm planning on dumping 1/2 of that position at 1.0040, and probably will tighten up the stop on the balance if that happens.

The pattern in the EUR since Monday's low is definitely corrective looking.  We've already hit the 50% retrace level of the preceding downstroke at 1.3582, if that doesn't mark the top the next target level is the .618 retrace at 1.3619.

We may be at or near the top of the rally in silver that started on Jan 27.  Initial target was the Jan 3 high at 31.275.  Silver hit a high for the current rally today at 30.97, which is pretty close.  In addition, today's little rally could be labeled as the 5th wave to a move up that started on Feb 1 which would complete the "c" leg of the rally that started Jan 27. 

1 comment:

  1. Check out this guys analysis on the Aussie dollar chart.
    WoW!!! Better watch it like a hawk!!