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Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Wednesday 1/19/11 update

4:00 PM CST
EUR
Looks like EUR is in Minute W5 (green) of Minor Wave c (red) of an irregular flat correction that started at the Nov 30 low.  Target high for Minor W "c" was the .382 to .50 retracement of the November sell off.  Also, that high needed to equal or exceed the Minor W "a" high at 1.3493.  Today's high print of 1.3534 exceeds the 1.3493 Min W "a" high and is almost exactly halfway between the .382 and .50 retrace levels.  Thus Minute W 5 and thus Minor W "c" is possibly complete at today's high, but the pattern looks like it needs a little more upside.   

EUR Daily

EUR Hourly

AUD 
From an intermediate term perspective the AUD is well into a corrective sequence.  The question is whether this is an Intermediate or Major Wave correction.  For the near term this question is irrelevant, as there has only been one corrective wave down so far.  That wave down is being labeled as Minor Wave "a" for now.  Minor W "a" started at the Dec 31 high of 1.0168 and ended at a low of .9736 on Jan 11.  Since that low there is a clearly identifiable three wave counter trend rally with a high print today at 1.0009.  The .618 retrace of Minor W "a" is 1.0003, pretty darn close.  There might be one or two more upside runs in the AUD yet, but if that's the case it shouldn't travel too much farther up from here.



10:15 AM CST
Is the top finally in for ES?  Could be.  I had a target of ES 1297 +/-, high this morning was 1296.25.

2 hour bars

Daily bars
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