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Monday, January 24, 2011

Monday 1/24/11 wrap up

The AUD appears to be in the 4th wave of a bull market dating back to last May.  It's either an Intermediate W4 (as shown in the daily chart below) or a Minor W4 (alternate count - not shown).

Within the current wave there is a distinct possibility that a triangle is being formed.  This possibility will be ruled out very quickly in the next day if the AUD extends it's current up swing significantly past the upper boundary of the possible triangle.  That boundary currently is in the .9960 to .9970 area.

On the ES, still holding the shorts from last week.  Little bit dicey today, ES was within sniffing distance of the stop loss.  News stories after the close heralded the new high in the DJIA, but this market really is thinning out - no new high in the SPX, RUT or Wilshire which is classic topping behavior for equities.  So I may get stopped out of my ES position but I do believe I'll be back in on the short side in the very near future if that happens.
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