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Sunday, January 30, 2011

Weekend Update 1/30/11

Friday was almost certainly a major trend change day across many markets.  Don't have a lot of time for discussion/explanation so I'm going to throw up a bunch of charts, hopefully you're familiar enough with Elliott Wave to interpret them.

ES  

ES - 4 hour bars
There is an alternate on the ES, and that would be that Friday's action was the "C" wave of a Minor W4 flat.  In this case we have Minor W5 yet to occur.  Given the apparent trend change action in other markets I rate this alternate as low probability.

ES - daily 

EUR  

EUR hourly   

EUR daily 


AUD   

Aud hourly 

Aud daily  

Gold 

Gold hourly 

Note how Minute Wave C (green) is almost exactly equal to Minute Wave A.

Gold daily 

Gold is the muddiest picture of the 5 markets presented.  If the count on the daily chart is correct, then gold is in a Minor W4 (red).  Minor W2 occurred in Dec '09 to early Feb '10 and was a simple zig zag.  Thus Minor W4 needs to be a flat or triangle or some type of complex formation by virtue of the Elliott rule of alternation.  Also, it would be expected to be of similar duration as Minor W2 which lasted about two months.  So far Minor W4 has traced out a simple zig-zag down over the space of a little less than a month.  So it may not be done yet.  The complicating factor is that the Minute W5 (green) labeled at the high of early Jan can be backed up to the high of early Dec with some re-labeling of the true end of Minute W4 (it would be an irregular flat ending at the Nov 17 low).  In that case we can count a more complex double zig-zag as ending at last week's low.  In that case we've satisfied the Elliott rules for the Minor W4 correction.
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