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Friday, January 7, 2011

Friday 1/7/11 update

Currencies

AUD/US$
Two main intermediate term possibilities on AUD at this point.

Alternate #1 (daily chart)

Alternate 1 has an Intermediate W3 complete as of the Dec 31 high.  Inter W4 is in progress and Inter W5 yet to occur to complete the rally off the May '10 lows.  Target for Inter W4 is the area of the preceding Minor W4 low around .9500.

Alternate #2 (daily chart)

 Alternate #2 has all 5 waves of the rally off the May '10 lows complete at the Dec 31 high.  The main difference in this alternate is the depth of the expected correction.  If this alternate is correct, the AUD should eventually retrace to near one of the main fib points of .382, .50 or .618.  This gives a target area anywhere from .9359 to .8858.  Quite a wide range, so in this case the best bet is to monitor the EW count as it unfolds to zero in on a more precise target.  This alternate increases in probability if and when the sell off pushes significantly below the .95 area identified in Alternate #1.

EUR/US$

The EUR has just been a mess to figure out (and trade) since the lows of Nov 30.  There are lots of alternative counts for the pattern since then, here are two.

Alternate #1
Hourly Chart
Daily Chart

In this alternate we concluded an Intermediate Wave B at Tuesday's high and are now in Intermediate Wave C of a 3 wave move down from the early Nov highs.  Intermediate Wave C should achieve the lows of last June at the very least, which gives an initial target in the 1.18 area.

Alternate #2 (Daily Chart only)

Alternate #2 is the same as #1 in the sense that we are in a 3 wave move down from the Nov highs and are eventually headed to the 1.18 area or more.  However, in this scenario we are tracing out an irregular flat Intermediate Wave B and are only in Minor Wave B of that move.  We thus are yet to see a sharp Minor Wave C rally before concluding Inter Wave B, at which point we should turn sharply lower.  This alternate will be ruled out if we don't begin a sustained up move in the very near (next day or two) future.

4 comments:

  1. Good afternoon Al,

    Does your possible top out near 1279 on the ES/SP500 match well with any Fibonacci retracement numbers?

    Also, it looks like Daneric has moved into the camp of this rally up being of a primary trend. I suspect that you still see this wave as being corrective. What numbers would confirm primary up for you or a primary down for you?

    I apologize if I've missed answers to the questions above. I've been traveling and visiting family over the last few weeks.

    Thank you.

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  2. Hi Al. I've been shorting the 20 year. I'm getting the sense that once POMO & the $RUT finish doing their thing, the $RUT drops a bit and we get a nice rise in interest rates.
    http://instigator928.blogspot.com/2011/01/transient-rut-impact-on-tmv.html
    If this scenario plays out, what would you predict for the dollar, euro, oil, natural gas, uranium, silver & gold? Pick which ever ones you want...
    Thanks!
    Jordan

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  3. At ES 1280 Minor Waves 2 thru 5 will equal Minor Wave 1 of this Intermediate Wave 5. In my count Inter Wave 5 started at the Nov 28 low.
    On the long term, I've held the opinion for quite some time (over 2 years) that we're in a Cycle degree "X" wave which will separate two Cycle degree corrective sequences. In that X wave, the "A" leg was complete at the high of Apr 26, 2010 and the "B" leg done at the low of Jul 6, 2010, so we are thus in the "C" leg which should eventually top out in the area of the 2007 high around ES 1600 http://screencast.com/t/OCAH1ZrVKfk and http://screencast.com/t/kjy1MIRCUuSm

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  4. I've had the same thought, higher interest rates should be bullish for the US$ and bearish for euro, gold and maybe silver. Don't follow the others, but would think a strong US$ should have a bearish influence on oil & gas.

    ReplyDelete