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Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Tuesday 10/19/10 wrap up

ES is in a minute wave 4 if my count is correct, so far it's taking the form of a simple zig-zag which alternates with the complex double zig-zag of minute wave 2 and thus satisfies Elliott rules.  The top of minute wave 1 was 1149.75, so if we should sell off to that level without resuming the rally this count is invalidated.

Trendline/Oscillator Charts
After an extended period when all 5 of the markets followed were solid up on both the hourly and daily charts there's been a lot of action in the last couple of days.

ES - Sell signal again today on the hourly, but this time it's accompanied by a break below the uptrend line on the daily chart.  The hourly sell makes sense in light of the above Elliott count, but that count calls for a couple more wave 4 & 5 sequences before any serious correction occurs, so a sell on the daily chart would be a surprise.  If the Dyn Osc breaks below 80 on the daily and thus generates a sell on that time frame then the above Elliott count will be in serious jeopardy.  For now I'm trusting that the count is correct and planning to go long on a buy signal on the hourly chart. 

EUR/USD - continues in down trend on hourly and edging closer to a sell on the daily.

AUD/USD - generated a sell signal on the hourly today but quite a long way to go on the daily before the daily uptrend line comes into play.

Gold - also generated a sell on the hourly today but still holding in UP mode on the daily chart.  Quite a significant drop in prices in this market in a small period of time, one would expect a nice retrace to say the least.  Looking to go long in this market on a buy signal on the hourly chart AS LONG AS the daily remains in UP mode.

Silver- edging towards a sell signal on the hourly chart.
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