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Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Wednesday 5/5/10 wrap up

Closed Monday's short ES today, booked a nice profit.  Buy line is trending down towards zero.  This is where the lack of track record with the Vindicator becomes problematic. In February in the strongly trending bull market the Sell line fell towards zero and just stayed there for days on end, while the V Stoch continued to oscillate and gave some excellent entry points.  In the January sell off, the Buy line didn't exactly flat line, but it stayed below the Sell line until towards the end of the run.   The V Stoch was not developed at that time.  From mid-March to Monday a week ago the Buy/Sell line was the indicator from which to trade.  Trades were mostly profitable whenever the Buy or Sell line dropped towards zero and ticked up  The V Stoch sometimes confirmed, sometimes didn't.  So is a long play dictated here with the Buy line's approach to zero?  Or should that be ignored and focus put on the V Stoch?
Meanwhile, it looks like we have 3 waves down complete, which could be either an A-B-C and thus end of correction or a 1-2-3 with 4 in process and a 5th to come. The pattern since this morning's low is sloppy and choppy, so I believe we're in a 4th.  If that's the case, more selling is to come and a long position is not the place to be.
So the plan is as follows:
-Go short if the V Stoch tops 75 and it still looks like we're in a 4th wave (4th wave is invalidated if we top SPX 1181.62 which was the low of wave 1)
-Go long if the Buy line bottoms and ticks up only if in conjunction with a final 5th wave drop to new lows - especially if the V Stoch bottoms simultaneously  (looks like that will be the case)
 
If we are in a 5 wave pattern down from the highs of 4/26, then wave 2 was a zigzag and the current wave 4 would need to be either a flat or triangle (wedge) to adhere to the Elliott rule of alternation.  You  can see from the 5 minute chart that we appear to be forming a triangle with the SPX currently in the C leg of that progression.

1 comment:

  1. Al,
    In reference to this morning, you are right, the 5 min V Stoch divergence was a screaming signal to a temporary bottom.

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