Sharp ride down today, but by the end of the day the Buy line ticked up from a decline towards zero (happened at the very end of day). Also, the 30 minute V Stoch bottomed around mid morning and then started a bullish divergence against prices for the rest of the day. 5 minute V Stoch also showed bullish divergences. If anything the market is due a bounce after a strong move down like today's, plus we've had a pattern for a few months of "ramp up Monday". Went long ES about 15 minutes before the close but hedged the position with ES June 1125 Puts. I really dislike hedging with options, but the situation in Europe is a real wild card and all the technical analysis in the world may be useless in the face of major events that could transpire over the weekend. It's entirely possible to see a major gap down on the open Sunday PM that opens below any stop loss that might be in place, so options are a choice that gives the downside protection normally provided by a stop loss and avoids the risk of a gap opening below a stop loss.
On the Ellliott count it looks like door #2 at the moment, i.e. 5 waves up complete at Thursday's highs to end a wave 1, with today's selling being part or all of a wave 2 correction. Pretty bearish statistics for today's action, on the NYSE decliners over advancers by 7:1 and down volume over up volume by almost 23:1, so that combined with international news makes this interpretation kind of dubious. We'll know the answer eventually of course, meanwhile it sure is interesting.
Friday, May 14, 2010
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