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Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Tuesday 5/4/10 wrap up

Exxxxcellent!!  Short from yesterday looking good.   Obviously.    The plan here is the same as a couple of days ago, hold short until there is a breach of the down trend line.  Because of the steepness of the sell off, the trend line is on the 5 minute chart which follows the 30 minute.

On the 5 min chart, the upper trend line of the channel bracketing the downstroke that started yesterday is the "buy to close" trigger.  That trend line was at SPX 1187.50 at today's close and dropping at about 15 points a day, roughly 2 points per hour.  The low this morning looks like the end of the thrust, and the pattern since looks corrective, signaling more selling to come.  Today was almost certainly a 3rd wave, or possibly wave 1 of an extended 3rd.  Either way, should be more to come.

Next chart is a volume profile study on the ES.  The blue bars on the right side of the chart represent cumulative volume at those price levels over the last 24 months.  This study can be used to identify potential resistance/support levels.  Note that I had identified 1164.00 as potential support, today's ES low was 1164.25.  Next strong support below that is 1138.50

Stay tuned, looks like more thrills right around the corner.