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Monday, May 3, 2010

Monday 5/3/10 wrap up

1000 lashes for me today.   I violated one of my own rules - STICK WITH THE PLAN.  The plan on the short ES held over the weekend was to cover on a breach of the channel.. Channel was breached today at 11 AM CST, instead of covering I moved the stop to 1198.50 and got taken out about an hour later.  Still a profitable trade, but less than 1/2 of what it should have been.  Coulda woulda shoulda - leaving it in the rear view and moving on. 
Went short ES again later today (2 PM CST) when 30 minute V Stoch peaked above 75 and rolled over.   A gap down open tomorrow would be nice - somebody call that in please.


There are three EW possibilities here.  First is that the correction was over with the lows last Tue-Wed, that option seems less likely to me for reasons stated last week.  Second is we've seen 1-2 & 1-2 with a 3rd wave either started or very close, as per this:

The third option is that last Tue-Wed lows terminated an A wave and that we are presently tracing out a diagonal B wave:

I kind of favor the diagonal possibility,  but time will tell.  

2 comments:

  1. Al, seems we are the only ones short over night. My thesis is based on the action of the Toronto Stock Exchange Composite index. Despite the strong US market close today, the TSX closed negative. More significant, it has had great difficulty crossing it's .618 retracement from last year crash now standing at 12,222. Close today 12,196. Lately hovering around its 12,222 but no strong penetration.

    12,222 is also a hidden 666. 12 = 6+6, 2+2+2 =6 thus 12,222 = 666

    If we are wrong tomorrow, I will fade out of my position gradually. 7000 FAZ @ 11.74.

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  2. Tony Caldaro has some comments on foreign markets rolling over in his post today http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/ If he's right being short here is a good move.

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