I'll start with the Vindicator. The question is which Vindicator should one trade off: the Buy/Sell line or the V Stoch? The Buy/Sell line gave two consecutive buy signals in the last few days when it bottomed below 1000 and ticked up, 1st was at the close Friday and 2nd mid-afternoon yesterday. However, the 30 minute V Stoch rolled over from a reading above75 this morning which is a sell on that Vindicator version. Looking at the chart and with 20/20 hindsight it's obvious that a reversal from long to short was dictated when the V Stoch rolled over this AM, especially since prices broke the up trendline off yesterday's lows. So perhaps the weakness is in my read and not the instrument.
For tomorrow I will stay in cash until something definitive develops, right now that looks like another long position if the Buy line drops below 1000 accompanied by the V Stoch bottoming.
DOOR #2 (BULL MARKET)
DOOR #1 (BEAR MARKET)
My experience with EW, as well as the EW charts I've seen from everyone who uses it, suggest that it is more descriptive than predictive. Without combining it with more traditional TA, the results are like looking in a mirror, you see yourself, not the market. Even mechanical systems can reach inflection points where their readings flip from bull to bear, what that tells me is to lay low and wait for resolution. Dr. Robert McHugh has the best arrays of mechanical indicators I've see but even he allows his bias to cost him money. Thanks for the info on your site, I read it every day.
ReplyDeleteZero - appreciate the input, check out the addendum to today's wrap up that I just posted.
ReplyDeleteThis market is soo hectic. A break under your bottom trendline around noon led me to a small short where I scalped 500. via FAZ. But I got out way too fast.
ReplyDeleteTwo consecutive BO's in a row was interesting to watch. Your Buy line is moving into position along with V stoch for a possible buy where I will most likely Buy some.
I'm looking for another long entry as well - see addendum posted after the wrap up. Yes, very volatile market. It's been tracking the EUR step for step, my take is if the EUR turns up or even flattens out we could spring up pretty sharply.
ReplyDelete