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Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Wednesday, 5/2/12 update

The bullish perspective on the ES here would be to consider the rally up from the Apr 23 low into Monday's high to be a 1st wave of a impulse to new highs.  In that case, the ES has already traced a zig-zag move down to today's low at 1389.25 which would be perfectly acceptable as the 2nd wave of the sequence.  However, the bounce since that low has been much more corrective than impulsive, so it's quite possible that another zig-zag could occur before the correction is over.

There are two bearish alternates at the moment to be considered.  In both cases the high on Monday would be considered the C wave of a 3-3-5 flat correction that started at the Apr 10 low.  In these cases it would be down from here.  The 1st chart below is the more likely bearish alternate IMHO.

Alternate 1

Alternate 2

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