Wednesday, 5/16/12 update

The two possibilities for gold discussed in the May 8 update have been narrowed down to one, and that is that a Major W4 correction from last year's Major W3 high is still in progress.  This count has a double zig-zag forming from that Major W3 top with the second of those zig-zags starting at the high of Feb 28.  Further, the action since Feb 28 has already formed the A and B legs of the structure with the C (and thus final) leg in progress since May 1.  However, at this point the internal structure of this C wave appears to indicate that it has a distance to yet travel:

Please note that the projected market path represented by the red dotted lines is conceptual only, it is not intended as a prediction of price targets.  What it is saying is that when applying Elliott rules to the pattern it appears that Minute W3 (green numbers) from the May 1 high has not yet concluded, and when that happens there still will be a Minute W4 & W5 necessary to complete the pattern.
Here's what it looks like from a longer term perspective, 1st chart is 4 hour bars and 2nd is daily:

So how to to determine the conclusion of Minor C, Intermediate Y & Major W4?  A break up out of the channel established from the May 1 high would be a very good indicator of that bottom either being achieved or close at hand.