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Saturday, April 28, 2012

Saturday, 4/28/12 update

Very nice rally off Monday morning's low this week in the ES/SPX.  In the ES the 5th wave of that rally is an ED that started at Wednesday's 1376.25 low. That rally could be complete with the Friday morning high at 1403.00.  If so then the drop and subsequent rally that took up most of Friday can be read as waves 1 and (very deep) 2 of a developing down move.

If all this is correct then the big question is what type of a down move will we see?  The EW alternates that seem most probable at this point are (as usual) almost completely contrary to one another.  I really don't have strong leanings to any of them at this point.  Here's updated charts on the three alternates presented Wednesday, not a lot new in them , the market is yet to reveal which alternate is in play.

Alternate #1
Daily
Hourly

Alternate #2
Daily
Hourly

 Alternate #3
Daily
  Hourly
 
 

1 comment:

  1. Hi Al.  I apologize that I didn't realize you had this blog going.  Or maybe I should say I didn't realize it was your blog when I clicked over to here last time.

    The second chart is one that really resonates with me at least from the standpoint that it just has the right 'look' to me.  But I have to admit that at this very moment the market internals seem to be putting in a bottom.  One in particular, the NYSI weekly, seems to be making a case that at least a few weeks of upside could be on the way.  This indicator is very dependable too, so I'm afraid your 6th chart (alternate #3 daily) has a better chance of being correct than the one I favor.

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