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Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Tueday, 5/29/12 update

Updated short term wave count for ES:


  1. Hi Al,

    I wanted to let you know that I glance over here every day. I think your charts make sense. May be I want the market to decline to shut my "buy-n-hold" friends get blasted or because I know that at these levels my risk to reward ratio is high.

    No matter, I have learned to be very patient.

    How did you come to picking 1334.81 for the current move higher?

    I posted this chart today on SJ's site$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p22447349102&a=267943408

    I also think that the move from 1415 to 1292 might be wave i down. In this case, we are in wave ii which usually retraces 50 to 61.8% of wave i. This means that 1353 to 1368 is the target.$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=1&dy=3&id=p06495049465&a=268225459

    Pretzel has this option has well as the chance that this is wave iv of wave i down which means 1336.61 cannot be eclipsed. This would look similar to your take.$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p34572126813&a=267255338

    wave iii was 1366 to 1292 I think.

    Anyway, I thought I would share what I see. I have noticed that you have posted at Pretzel's site. I love his analysis, but his blog is tough since so many people are there at one time. Most of the good bloggers over there are day traders. I am out of that business.

    My 401K and IRA are waiting for a better entry point like we had last October. I look at this shorter term charts to try and determine if another leg higher is in the cards. A move from 1330 to 1360 (~3%) will not get me off the sidelines.

    Take care,

  2.  1334.81 is a .382 retrace of Minute W3 (green) - 1411.75 (May 1) to 1287.25 (May 20).