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Thursday, March 22, 2012

Thursday, 3/22/12 update

Sell signal on ES last night 11:00 PM CDT. Minor W5 was done at the high of 1408 on Monday. Sold longs at that time, looking for a decent bounce before considering a short position.


  1. Hi Apple Al,

    Do you see the bounce exceeding 1408 on ES?

    On the hourly chart, I count 5 waves (1339-1375, 1375-1364, 1364-1394, 1394-1386, and 1386 to 1408). I tend to round numbers, but the point moves are  36, 11, 30, 8, and 22 points.

    Chart now looks like an a wave (1408-1397; 11 pts), a b wave (1397 to 1406; 9 pts); and a c wave (1406 to 1387; 19 pts) have completed

    My question is if we completed 5 waves up from 1339 to 1408 (69 pts) and we had a retracement from 1408 to 1387, 21 pts; 30% retracement) do you expect another 5 waves up in which the high exceeds 1408?

    If this is the end of Major wave B, then do you expect 5 waves down and only 3 waves up until Major wave C is over?

    Major Wave C target?


  2. Al,

    I already found an error in my post. The b corrective wave ended at 1383 which is below the wave 4 low. Is this significant?

    Ending at 1383 made this correction ~38% which is typical

    Don't corrections normally end near the Wave 4 low?



  3. Been a very hectic morning with my processing business (we make fresh sliced apples).
    Bounce I was looking for happened overnight so I missed it. 
    There are definitely 5 waves up from 1339 to 1408, I'm counting it at as a 5th wave up of a bull move that started on Nov 25.
    Haven't had time to analyze the pattern down from Monday's high in any depth, I do know just glancing at the ES hourly that it cannot be counted as 5 waves into today's low because waves 1 & 4 would overlap, so it's either a triple zig-zag or a series of waves 1 & 2 of declining degree.
    As far as where we go from here, I'm maintaining two alternate possibilities which are diametrically opposed: one has us going straight down from here towards ES 1000 or more, the other has us rallying up into the upper 1400's at a minimum.  Herein lies the major problem with Elliott analysis: there are ALWAYS valid alternate counts.
    I'm planning a post over the weekend outlining the alternates.