Saturday, 3/10/12 update

Looks like Minor W3 of the run up from the Nov 25 low topped on Thur, Mar 1.
Minor W4 has been in progress since that Mar 1 top. A three leg move is apparent into the low of 1338.50 on Mar 6, that is being counted as Minute Wave "a". Minor W4 should be a flat or triangle to alternate with the zig-zag of Minor W2. A triangle has 5 legs of ever decreasing length and (typically) strength. The rally off the Mar 6 low has been fairly stout, so it looks more like a potential Minute Wave "b" of a developing flat, which is the way it's being counted at this point in time. If this view is correct, the ES should trace a three leg move from that Mar 6 low that pushes to the 1377 area to complete Minute "b". Five waves can be counted up from the Mar 6 low into Friday's high, so the ES should immediately see a one or two day minor correction followed by a run towards 1377 to complete those three legs. Minute "c" should follow with a more serious and sustained sell off than Minute "a" to complete Minor W4. A possible target for the low of Minor W4 is the .382 retrace of Minor W3 which is at 1307.75.

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Meanwhile the US$ continues to build steam in it's rally off it's Feb 29 low. This should have a bearish impact on equities, but not necessarily immediately.

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