The SPX/ES has been in a slow upward grind in the last two weeks. The best current count has it in a Minute Wave 5 of a Minor Wave 3 rally that started on Dec 19. As a 5th wave of a rally that is in it's 3rd month and that has seen a price appreciation of around 15% in that space of time, and also with prices in the exact same area that turned the market south last May, it's no surprise that the market is struggling. The best way to count this wave is as an ending diagonal, with waves 1 thru 4 of that structure in place and the 5th and final wave itself nearing completion. Thus a top for Minor W3 finally appears to be close at hand.
Markets usually need a precipitating event to roll them over, and that event at this juncture could well be a major turn up in the value of the US$. The DX has broken above it's downtrend line on Friday, the 1st necessary step in a rally. Follow through and confirmation are yet to come. Equity values and the value of the US$ has tended to show an inverse correlation in recent years, so this could be the trigger for the bear in equities.
CYCLE - Green - I, II, III, IV, V - A, B, C, X PRIMARY - Red - I, II, III, IV, V - A, B, C, X MAJOR - Blue - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 - a, b, c, x INTERMEDIATE - Purple - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 - a, b, c, x MINOR - Red - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 - a, b, c, x MINUTE - Green - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 - a, b, c, x MICRO - Black - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 - a, b, c, x NANO - Black - (1), (2), (3), (4), (5) - (a), (b), (c), (x)
Manage apple orchard & processing business full time - trade part time
Traded cattle futures professionally for family meat packing company in 1980's
Also traded stock indexes for own account
Won the US Trading Championship - Options Division in 1986 (500%+ return in 4 months)
