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Saturday, March 24, 2012

Saturday, 3/24/12 update

There are two alternate Elliott counts currently being maintained for the ES:

Alternate #1

Daily

Hourly

Alternate #2

Daily

Hourly

At this point Alternate #2 is hanging by a thread and will most likely be eliminated next week. In Alternate #2 a very significant top is assumed to have been established with the 1408.00 high of last Monday. This would mark the peak of a B wave in a 3-3-5 flat dating back to the highs in this area of last May. A Major Wave C should thus now be in progress. As such it should generate a strong impulsive structure to the downside. Instead, to this point we've had a somewhat choppy and very corrective looking sell off characterized by lots of wave overlaps. Further, the ES came within a whisker of confirming an upside reversal at Friday's close. On the hourly chart it put in a positive divergence on the Dynamic Oscillator as well as the RSI, and closed right on the down trend line that delineates the sell off. A close above that down trend line will confirm a reversal.

A rally above ES 1418 will be the trigger that eliminates Alternate #2.

4 comments:

  1. People tend to trade with market mood or swing rather than Market trends

    ReplyDelete
  2.  Not sure what your point is?

    ReplyDelete
  3. There should be 5 waves up from the intraday low of 1381

    Wave 1: 1381 to 1398 (17 points)
    Wave 2: 1398 to 1393 (5 points)
    Wave 3: 1396 to 1417 (21 points)-I do not think the quick dip from 10 am to 12 pm) is a wave because it too small.

    SO we finish wave 3 then have 4 and 5 before another correction

    Aaron

    ReplyDelete
  4.  That's about the way it looks to me, but it's too early to be definitive - W3 could extend.

    ReplyDelete