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Monday, March 19, 2012

Monday, 3/19/12 update

Continued rally means that Minor W5 is extending. Updated count on Minor W5 below. If correct, there is a Micro Wave 4 & 5 and Minute Wave 4 & 5 yet to occur, with Micro W4 currently in progress. Target of 1418 for a top.


  1. Hi Apple Al,

    How significant of a top?

    I count 5 waves from 1340 low:

    1) Wave 1: 1340 to 1375 (35 pts)

    2) Wave 2: 1375 to 1367 (8 pts)

    3) Wave 3: 1367 to 1399 (32 pts)

    4) Wave 4: 1399 to 1390 (9 pts)

    5) Wave 5: 1390 to 1414 (currently 24 pts)

    If I am not wrong then Wave 5 < 32 pts because wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. This would mean 1421.

    I think this ends the uptrend like you have been saying. A guy named Ramki says we are in the 5th wave off of 2009 lows which will end near 1430-1450. After that, a serious ABC correction.

    Let me ask you something, being mostly on the side lines since SPX 1354 has been eating away at me. I feel like a fool for not being long equities. Some say that 1500 will be hit before any meaningful correction.

    Do you feel this is possible based on EW?


  2.  If you look at my proposed count in the hourly chart in the post, and using an ES hourly continuation chart, right now it looks to me that W1 was from 1338.75 to 1360, W2 from 1360 to 1351.75, and W3 has been in progress ever since and is an extended wave (subdivided into multiple 5 wave structures of smaller degree). 
    How significant a top?  I am following two alternates: 1st one says quite a significant top, ensuing market will be serious bear headed to 1000 area or lower, 2nd alternate only looking for 80 points or so of correction.  Which one will it be? Dunno, that's why I'm tracking both possibilities. 
    As far as ES 1500, yes I believe it's quite possible, I believe we're headed back to the 2007 high at 1586.75 eventually, followed by major trouble.