Monday 4/4/11 wrap up

ES has been right on track with the preferred wave count.  There is quite possibly a triangle forming since Friday's high which would work quite nicely as Minor W4 (red), after which there should be a stab higher for Minor W5 to complete Intermediate W1 off the mid-March lows.  If Minor W4 stays in the 1324 - 1334 range we've had since Friday, then Minor W5 would have a target in the 1350 - 1360 area to be equivalent to the travel of Minor W1.

ES - hourly

 
Over the weekend I did some review of the underlying technicals of the rally since mid-March, and they are not as strong as has been seen in the past for a 1st wave kick off of what should be a significant bull run.  So although the mid-March lows are currently marked as the end of a Primary W2 and thus Primary W3 assumed to be in progress, this market has yet to really prove itself in my mind.  But it certainly is unfolding in an impulsive manner, so the trend is definitely bullish for the time being.

Here's a daily chart for some perspective.

ES - daily