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Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Wednesday 3/30/11 wrap up

Looks like a 5th wave done or almost done on ES/SPX today.  But it's only a sub-wave to Micro W3 of Minute W3, so any selling should be corrective and short lived.

ES - 2 hour bars

AUD/US$
The AUD has been in a bull market since the end of last May,  with a strong run up occurring from early Jun through early Nov, and then a lot of sideways action into the low two weeks ago.  There's been a nice rally since then, but by the preferred count below it is in a Minor W5 and is quite possibly close to the conclusion of that wave.  If this count is correct, the AUD should roll over soon into a correction that will carry back down to the area of previous wave 4 lows.  That area is between .9600 and .9800.

AUD - daily

AUD - hourly

There is an alternate in the AUD which is more bullish.  That count has Minor W5 and thus Intermediate W1 complete at the highs of early March with the low two weeks ago labeled as Intermediate W2.  In both counts the move up from the low is nearly complete, the difference in the alternate would be the extent of the correction to be expected when that move does roll over.  Under the alternate it would much more shallow and shorter in duration.

AUD - daily - alternate
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