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Sunday, April 10, 2011

Weekend Update 4/10/11

ES  
Preferred count is that the 6 day sideways grind into Friday's close was a Minor W4 triangle which concluded at Friday's low.  Why not call the overnight rally into Friday morning's high Minor W5 and thus designate it as a short term top?  Three reasons :  that rally looks more corrective than impulsive - it's much better counted as a three than a five;  the rally is quite short in relation to Minor W1 and (especially) Minor W3; next week is op ex week which is almost unfailingly bullish.


Minor W1 carried 33.50 points, so from Friday's low of 1318.75 Minor W5 = Minor W1 @ ES 1352.25.

EUR/US$
Like a lot of other markets geared off the US$, which has been in a steady bear market, the EUR/US$ has been on a bull run.  The EUR put in a major long term low in Jun 2010 that is labeled a Primary Wave B (red), and an interim long term low in early January that is labeled a Major Wave b (blue).  Projecting targets for Major Wave c and thus Primary Wave C there is a fibonnaci confluence in the 1.5272 to 1.5357 area (all prices based on the (EUR/US$ futures contract).  Major Wave c is equal to Major Wave a @ 1.5272, and Primary Wave C is 1.236 x Primary Wave A at 1.5357.

 EUR/US$ (futures) - daily

Within Major Wave C: Intermediate W1 and W2 (purple) were complete at the high of Feb 1 and low of  Feb 14 respectively, and Minor W1 and W2 (red) of Intermed 3 were done at the high of Mar 7 and low of Mar 11 respectively.  Since Mar 11 there has been a continuing sequence of Waves 1 & 2's into a low last Tuesday Apr 5, so that at the moment the EUR appears to be in a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd wave of Major Wave C.  In other words, right smack in the middle of the run.

EUR/US$ - 2 hour bars
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