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Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Tuesday 4/5/11 wrap up

It's possible that the ES finished a Minor W4 (red) triangle at this morning's low and is in Minor W5.  However, on the SPX the pattern looks more like a flat in progress with the sell off this afternoon being the "c" leg of that pattern.  A case could also be made for a flat being in progress on the ES, so there is uncertainty here.  In the ES, if Minor W4 was in fact complete this morning and Minor W5 is in progress, then the selling that began this afternoon should not carry lower than the Minor W4 low at 1323.  If that happens, then either Minor W4 was not done at this morning's low or Minor W5 and thus Intermediate W1 was complete at today's high.  Since Minor W1 carried 33 points and today's rally was only 11 points, odds are that Minor W5 is not done or is yet to occur.

ES - hourly

The EUR appears to be in Major Wave c (blue) of Primary Wave C (red) of a long term cycle dating back to the fall of 2008.  Major Wave C commenced at the lows of early January.  The best initial target is a little past the highs of Primary Wave A which was in the 1.514 area.  Some Fibonnaci projections point to 1.5272 to 1.5357 as a potential area for a top.

EUR - daily

Since the Major Wave b low of early Jan the EUR appears to have completed Intermediate W1 at the high of Feb 1 and Minor W1 and W2 of Intermediate W3 in early March.  That would put the EUR in Minor W3 of Intermediate W3, so some upside power should be in the offing.

EUR - hourly

However, since the lows of mid-March the EUR seems to sputtering rather than powering up, at least so far.  Which brings up a possible alternate count.

EUR - daily - alternate

In this alternate Primary Wave B is still in progress.  Major Wave a of Primary B occurred in Jun last year and Major b is in progress and is taking the form of a triangle (a double zig-zag is also possible).  If the EUR should start picking up steam and power past the Nov 4 high at 1.4276 the triangle becomes invalidated and the thought of a double zig zag becomes less likely.
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