ES - daily - alternate count
Following up on the alternate ES count from last night's post, the internal count on the rally from mid-March through last week counts better as a three wave move than a five. Thus the thought of that being a "B" wave in an ongoing correction from the seven month rally that ended in mid-Feb fits well. It also makes sense from a duration standpoint - seven months of steady bull market would seem to need more than one month of correction. A further thought is that the correction is currently labeled as a Major Wave 2, 2nd waves typically cut much deeper than the 30% that was achieved at the Mar 17 low.
ES - hourly - alternate
Finally, as I mentioned last week, the underlying technicals of the rally from the mid-March lows have been much weaker than would be expected for a 1st wave up off a major low. Following is a chart of the daily NYSE against an 8 day MA of total daily volume.
And another one, daily NYSE against 21 day daily tick.
