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Monday, October 21, 2013

Monday, 10/21/13 update

Here's another long term count that hasn't yet been considered.  It has the correction that ended on Oct 9 as Major W4 of Primary W III, with Major W5 in progress and headed for a significant top.  The problem with this count is the same as that of labeling the August correction as Intermediate W4 of Major W3 - they both are much more shallow and short lived than the associated 2nd waves in their respective series.  But there still is a sense here of a major top forming, at least for this analyst.  Just looking at the chart, it's obvious that upward momentum is receding as compared to the trajectory of the prior two years.  So this count is worth considering.


  1. ..Non Farm Payrolls...

    My guess is 189k and market rallies hard....

    If ubber low figure i.e. 170k or lower....mkt will rally because the QE will stay even longer with us than before

    If ubber high figure i.e. 200k or higher....mkt will rally because it affirms the view that US economy is gaining momentum

    If inline with expectation.....mkt will rally because of the removal of overhang and near term uncertainty

    Basically, bears have zero chance in the current bullish cycle......might as well stick a head in a plastic bag and breathe and see how long you last.

    Breathe In, Breathe Out.......

    Be Long and Be Strong~

  2. ....

    1815 is coming .....don't lose sight! Focus folks.....

    This Emini dip overnight is a blessing from the skies, and I am loading up as I write.

    Momentum is a very sticky beast and there are plenty of bears to hunt.

    DO NOT turn your back on a friend........called trend!

    Be Long and Be Strong~

  3. Careful here - pattern off the Oct 9 low does not look complete, but it could be a fooler

  4. hi just checking in, been a while u haven't posted anything. is everything ok ur end?

  5. Everything is fine, just a busy life - processing business to manage full time, family concerns - market analysis falls down the priority list. Especially this time of year, we do have a piece of actual apple orchard and autumn means managing the harvest. Haven't done any trading since early October cuz didn't have time to monitor trades intraday. Short ES Friday however and still holding.
    What's your take on equities here?

    Hope to have a new post up sometime today.
    Thanks for the concern.

  6. am so glad all is ok! was a bit concerned with long absence. I am short from early last week. Think Friday marked the high of wave b, with c to follow down. Unsure how this leg down will unfold though. if we bottom at or above 1740, then we are likely to see new highs. If this is a retracement of the October up leg we could see 1720. On balance i think we see a shallow pull back and a wave 5 high that will mark an intermediate degree top with momentum divergences. I am not very excited though with equities which are by and large in chop zone. Think a long bonds and a long gdx might prove much more profitable. Stalking entry points in both. Also had a profitable long usd and short oil. Both closed, could initiate long eur for a bounce next week. All the best for the harvest and speak soon. rgds